Thoughts from
San Diego on Law, Politics, and Culture

 
Yet another entrepreneural scheme
By Tom Smith

Yes, I'm obsessed. The combination of markets and politics is just too much for me. It's a good thing I haven't allowed myself to start following something like the betting markets on college football, or I would just disappear into a black hole.

Oh, let me mention my entrepreneurial idea before I forget. We really need a big, user-friendly play market where people like me could bet play money on political events, sports, movies, national security related events (ok, terrorist attacks). Some academic studies suggest even these play markets do a remarkably good job prognosticating events. Like HSX. And people would dig it.

You could post people's portfolios (or their avatars') so folks could see who the really studly prognosicators were. Everyone would start out with the same amount of play money, as in Monopoly. It's about your forebrain, not your pockets. You'd have to register with your email address and zip code, but we wouldn't spam you. Who knows, it might lead successful players to prominence in the blogosphere, contracts with real investors, or whatever. And, I'm telling you, it would be a valuable information resource for all kinds of people.

And, unlike real money betting, which has to be offshore, it would all be legal, as legal as Monopoly. Once this site was getting a few thousand hits a day, you could sell advertizing. It's not a multi-million dollar idea, but I think a few people could make some money doing it. Oh, yeah, you should be able to bet on weather events too. People love the weather. It's even got its own cable channel. It could be big, I tell you! OK, maybe not. It could be Medium I tell you!
posted by thomas at 10/31/2004 11:07:00 AM

 
Oh, those chemical weapons
By Tom Smith

Fallujah ITN's (Islamofascist terrorist nutcases) vow to use chemical weapons to resist attack on Fallujah.

How deeply mysterious, when we know there are absolutely no chemical weapons in Iraq, and could not be, as a matter of fundamental faith and doctrine. As has been revealed to us by the MSM, peace be upon its collective heads.

I expect this story will be passed over by the US press, on grounds of being hard to 'splain. If chemical weapons are actually used, expect explanations of how it is Bush's fault.
posted by thomas at 10/31/2004 07:47:00 AM

 
I Don't Really Want to Think about the Electoral College Right Now, But ...
By Gail Heriot

You may have noticed that I haven't been blogging lately. Too much work is the reason. And today is really no different; I have quite a few deadlines staring me in the face. But somehow I have been unable to focus on them. Instead, I've been running to my computer every fifteen minutes or so to check Real Clear Politics.

Up until a few hours ago, the poll averages were suggesting that the outcome would be a split verdict, just like in 2000 but in reverse. Bush would win the popular vote, but Gore ... uh ... I mean Kerry would take the electoral vote and hence the White House. And, of course, it very well might still happen. Although some of the more recent polls are more favorable to Bush in states like Ohio and Wisconsin, it's obvious that this race is going to be tight. I am particularly concerned about Wisconsin going to Kerry, since it allows Election Day registration. In part as a result of the Electoral College system, the incentive to commit voter fraud may be irresistible or at least not be resisted. (As an aside, I'm sure it's true that voter fraud is committed by both Democrats and Republicans, but it is most likely to occur in neighborhoods where the residents are poor and undereducated and those neighborhoods tend to be Democratic. And if this is the first time this has been brought to your attention, you need to get out more.)

If the electoral vote does split, I hope it will make conservatives re-think their recent fondness for the Electoral College. I blogged about this issue several times last month, but I can't link to the items from my home computer, because I'm working with a browser from the 5th century that cannot deal effectively with the Blogger software. Let me summarize: Shortly after the 2000 election, conservative talking heads started taking it upon themselves to argue the virtues of the Electoral College. They evidently thought some defense had to be mounted or else Bush would seem illegitimate. Maybe they were right about the need to make the case. But it seemed a shame to me. Bush was legitimately elected not because the Electoral College is the best method for selecting the President, but because it is the method specified in the Constitution and the method under which the campaign was actually conducted. And whether the Electoral College is the best method or not, it is certainly a legitimate method.

Some of the arguments for Electoral College are perfectly sensible but hardly convincing by themselves. For example, it is probably a virtue of the Electoral College that it tends to magnify a strong popular showing for the winning candidate into an electoral landslide. Mandates like that help make strong leadership possible and on the whole I think that's a good thing.

The argument that one hears over and over again, however, is that the Electoral College forces candidates to pay attention to small states, which they otherwise would ignore. This is false. The real effect of the Electoral College is to focus candidate attention not on small states, but on battleground states, no matter what their size. Bush and Kerry haven't given their attention to voters in Idaho, Vermont and Utah or to voters in New York, Texas and Calfornia. Those electoral votes are already spoken for. It's Florida, Ohio, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania that get their nearly undivided attention.

That isn't necessarily bad in itself. In the age of television, who cares if Bush and Kerry appear in each state? But in practice it has been a serious problem. It isn't just campaign visits that states are competing for, but the promise of pork. Battleground states get a lot of it. Pennsylvania got its completely indefensible steel tariffs. (The Election gods have a sense of humor, since despite this cheap trick, Bush is behind in Pennsylvania.) Florida's elderly voters were no doubt meant to be impressed with the Medicare expansion. Who knows what promises Kerry has made to state leaders in these states. By its nature, the Electoral College generates a carnival of special interest deals.

But I need to think about this admittedly complex issue later, not today. And if the split vote occurs, I will have that opportunity. Dean Rodriguez has given his okay for a Journal of Contemporary Legal Issues symposium on the Electoral College. It will be my consolation prize in case of a Bush loss. No, I don't expect anything will come of it in the real world even if every academic who considers the issue ends of agreeing that change is warranted. Constitutional amendments must be approved by three quarters of the states, and states like Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Iowa, New Hampshire, Oregon, Missouri, Nevada, and West Virginia are unlikely to give up their gravy train voluntarily. But you never know.
posted by Gail at 10/30/2004 09:40:00 PM

 
A little Halloween story
By Tom Smith

This isn't the scariest thing that ever happened to me, but it will have to do.

So, anyway, not quite 20 years ago, I was driving my little Montero from Colorado to Idaho. It was summer, and I planned to just sleep rough when I got tired of driving. That happened somewhere in Northwestern Colorado, not far from the Utah border. It was late at night, a full moon was out, and I was in the very middle of nowhere. I was on some highway, not a freeway, and started looking for a dirt road off into the high grassland where I could throw my sleeping bag. Eventually I spotted one.

I turned off the highway to the north, and drove a couple of miles in 4 wheel drive, climbing through brushy, hilly country. Finally, the road petered out at a little, broken down coral. It seemed as good a place as any, so I stopped the jeep and got out.

As soon as I got out of the jeep, I was struck by a feeling that this was a bad place. Hard to say why, though the full moon shining its cold light on forlorn, broken fence rails didn't help. Next to the coral was a little shed. I thought just to careful, I should check it out, and make sure nobody was there.

I walked to the shed and pushed open the door. It was black inside, so I shone my flashlight around. The walls were splattered with something like black paint, and little bits of stuff. I took me a moment to figure out what it was. Then to my horror, I realized it was blood, and the little bits of stuff bits of flesh stuck to the walls. It was extremely unsettling. I quickly looked around to make sure I wasn't be stalked by somebody with a chainsaw, got back in my jeep, and drove a while until a found a little hill with a 360 view to camp on. I wasn't the most restful night.

I realized later what had happened was innocent enough. It's routine in managing cattle that you occassionally have to cut some beef critter out of the herd and slaughter it. It may be sick, or break a leg, or you just need some meat for the cowboys. I had stumbled across a corral and a shack where cattle were slaughtered, in conditions none too sanitary. But I was struck when I first got out of the jeep that it was a bad place. Perhaps the ghosts of sad cows, or perhaps just a faint odor of blood in the air, not enough to recognize consciously, but enough to turn on a little warning light in the old part of the brain.

posted by thomas at 10/30/2004 07:30:00 PM

 
Cool new hominid
By Tom Smith

Little people.
posted by thomas at 10/30/2004 11:25:00 AM

 
More electoral college madness!
By Tom Smith

Here's what you can do: open two browser windows, and put one the RCP electoral college projections and the other on the tradesports state lines. (click on any state on the home page.) This gives you a pretty good idea what we are looking at.

Bush still needs 38 electoral votes if you give him NM, 43 if you do not. Let's not: more conservative and NM really is corrupt. Tradesports gives W a 55 percent chance in NM, but let's discount that. If enchanted ballot boxes don't disappear, well and good. Where does W get 43 votes? He has to get FL with 27, and probably will. If he doesn't he's dead. Tradesports gives him about a 60 probability, and has for 2 weeks at least. That leaves 16 votes to get. Where? Ohio is a possibility but I doubt it. Tradesports has him at around 49 there, which seems right to me. I take PA and MN are Kerry as well. What about Iowa and Wisconsin? Barely for Bush, with 17 votes between them. Just enough.

So W is still the favorite. The above is conservative because I leave out NM and OH for Bush. Either could happen. In fact NM is now at about 58 on tradesports. Maybe the market knows something I don't. Hmmmm. And Ohio has jumped up 3 points to right around 50. Thanks, OBL. The overall line for Bush is about 55, which seems about right. IEM is at 57. So call it 56.

UPDATE: Interesting phone call from my brother Steve in HI. He says the island state may really be in play, contrary to the CW. New polls showing an even split are accurate, he believes. What's doing it are the Philippinos, very devout Catholics and a substantial minority of the population. Also, they tend to be closed mouthed about politics to outsiders, so polls may be underrepresenting them. Cheney is on his way to HI, so GOP internals must show it really is in play.

AND Holy Kachina, Batman! NM just jumped on tradesports by 16 points! WTH is that about! Now there's a huge spread. Does somebody know something? New poll just out? Maybe W does have a shot in the land of coyotes and trendy cuisine. Maybe it's some weird, spiritual thing. I'll throw my bones and let you know.
posted by thomas at 10/30/2004 08:19:00 AM

 
Make their day
By Tom Smith

Well put:

But above all, in this oppositional sort of age, when it is often easier to be defined by what one is against rather than what one is for, I have to say it is his enemies who most justify Bush's reelection.

The list of those whose world could be truly rocked on Tuesday is just too long and too rich to be ignored. If you think for a moment about those who would really be upset by a second Bush term, it becomes a lot easier to stomach.

The hordes of the bien-pensant Left in the universities and the media, the sort of liberals who tolerate everything except those who disagree with them. Secularist elites who disdain religiosity except when it comes from Muslim fanatics. Europhile Brits who drip contempt for everything their country has ever done and long for its disappearance into a Greater Europe. Absurd, isolationist conservatives in America and Britain who think the struggles for freedom are always someone else's fight. Hollywood sybarites and narcissists, self-appointed arbiters of a nation's morals.

Soft-headed Europeans who think engagement and dialogue with mass murderers is the way to achieve lasting peace. French intellectuals for whom nothing has gone right in the world since 1789.

The United Nations, which, if it had its multilateral way, would still be faithfully minding a world in which half the population lived under or in fear of Soviet aggression. Most of Belgium.

Above all, of course, Middle Eastern militants. If your bitterest enemies are the sort of people who hack the heads off unarmed, innocent civilians, then I would say you are probably doing something right.

This may sound petty. It is not. This constellation of individuals, parties and institutions has very little in common other than the fact that it has contrived to be wrong on just about every important issue of my adult lifetime.

And so, perhaps for the wrong reasons, perhaps less because he has been right and more because those who hate him so much have been so wrong, I want this President re-elected.

Go on America. Make Their Day.

posted by thomas at 10/29/2004 03:28:00 PM

 
History's highest priced phone sex
By Tom Smith

So you can discuss nipples with female subordinates. Just be ready to shell out 2-3 mil. Berrrry eeenteresting link here on the O'Reilly settlement. He's smart to settle. And now what's her name can retire, if she wants to. Everybody's happy, except, presumably Mrs. O'Reilly and kids. Time for O'Reilly to log some hours with old Father O'Shaemehaughnegaghsonie down at Our Lady of Perpetual Tribulation. "Ah, so, an' it's bein' a scumbag, are ya?" Bill, do us all a favor, and keep your impure thoughts to yerself next time. Keep a diary or something. Better yet, take up powerwalking. Fresh air and exercise. I'm glad to be wrong about the end of the career of Bill. It proves I can be wrong, which makes me feel better about the upcoming vote on the fate of freedom. (Please note -- link is source of clever post title.)

posted by thomas at 10/29/2004 08:51:00 AM

 
Your eyeball on the betting markets
By Tom Smith

So here's the deal. Take a deck of cards. Throw out the jokers. Throw out the black one-eyed jacks. Shuffle thoroughly. Draw a card. If it's red, Bush wins. If it's black, well, hope terrorism isn't the threat it sure as hell looks like. And get ready for some very unpleasant gloating. It won't be Camelot. Sucksalot, more like it. But let's try not to be negative. Time in your remote wilderness location builds strong families, and MREs are really pretty tastey. OK, I'll try again. Clinton people tell me that the national security establishment does a really good job sobering up clueless presidents. Or, maybe the polls and markets are wrong. And there are a few days left. Maybe the polls do a better job of getting out the vote than the voters will.

To me, this looks likes things getting tighter in Ohio. I still don't believe W will get PA or MI. If he does, it means internal polls really are better. Now, Ohio has tightened up before in the wake of Kerry visits. Bizarre, I know. Then the effect seems to wear off. So maybe . . .

Dick Morris, that toe-sucking son of a gun, says it's W all the way, relying on fundamental analysis. Well, OK. We'll just have to wait and see. Zogby calls it for Kerry. Zogby has made some good calls in the past, but he's still a partisan, and past performance is not that good an indicator.

Moments like this really make you think monarchy has its advantages. Not-that-bonnie-Prince Charlie might be available. Or may be Ariana Huffington? She'd have to agree to change her philosophy, but she'd be game. Or how about Emperor Volokh? He's a reasonable guy. Sorry, Brian, you're disqualified. I know! Ah nold! Ah nold! He's been a ruler before. But that is another story.
posted by thomas at 10/29/2004 08:18:00 AM

 
Don't feel sorry for Chairman Arafat
By Tom Smith

Where he's going, there will be a lot of people he can talk to about how much he hates the Jews.
posted by thomas at 10/27/2004 06:06:00 PM

 
Those darn Russians
By Tom Smith

They're better at this sort of thing than saving children.
posted by thomas at 10/27/2004 06:06:00 PM

 
More electoral college analysis
By Tom Smith

Real smart analysis over at RCP on the electoral college permutations.

Read it, but bear some things in mind. Bush is not going to win PA, unless the markets are way off. It's possible Rove has some super-secret inside polls, which would explain why POTUS was in PA today, but I doubt it. He also isn't going to win Michigan. But he probably will win at least one of Ohio and Wisconsin, probably will win Iowa and probably will win Florida. New Mexico? Well, he may win the vote, but the count will go to Kerry, or I'm a dad burned fool. New Mexico is like Texas without the law and order, or the wealth. If Bush loses Florida, that tells me the markets were wrong, Dem GOTV was working, blacks are turning out in large numbers for Kerry, and it's hard to see why Bush wouldn't lose Ohio, Wisconsin and Iowa as well. Kerry near landslide. But we have no reason to believe that will happen, except Dem chestpounding (or whatever the PC equivalent of chest pounding). I think it's possible Bush could win in theory by picking up NM and NH, if he won Florida and lost all the midwest. But I don't see him winning NM, or losing all the midwest either.

posted by thomas at 10/27/2004 06:06:00 PM

 
Diplomad gets it right
By Tom Smith

You really do get a different perspective living abroad. Dmad is right on about ferrin elites. He's also right it's going to be rather a disaster if Kerry wins. Ironic that history should throw up such a feather weight when we could really use a leader. I'm not saying Bush is Reagan, but like many ordinary guys at Omaha Beach, he figured out in a hurry what was necessary. Kerry strikes me as a strange man, driven by his ambitions to take on a job he is really not suited for.

While I am worried, I still think Bush is the favorite. The way I see it, Bush has to win Florida and either Ohio or Wisconsin. He is likely to win Florida, and very likely to win either Ohio or Wisconsin. Multiply the probabilities together and you get roughly the scrotum-tightening 55 percent the markets give him (tradesports and IEM have converged on that). That's tighter than a few days ago, but still better than Kerry's 45 percent. Unfortunately, I do think some judicial falderal is likely, but probably not as bad as 2000's perfect political storm. Of course, these are all just subjective probabilities. New information could enter the market. We'll find out in a few days how effective our Homeland Security improvements have been. Unfortunately, I don't think some sort of low tech hostage massacre or the like is out of the question. I am not expecting germs or gamma rays, but who knows.

Tea leaves are hard to read. Bush was in Lancaster, PA today. Why? I don't see how he can win PA, but maybe the internal Bush polls show something different. OTH, Kerry was in Iowa today. Same question. Recent polls from Zogby show Iowa and Michigan tied, and Kerry slightly ahead in Ohio and Wisconsin. If Kerry wins both Ohio and Wisconsin, Bush is done, but I think that's a one-in-four shot for John John at best. I also don't believe Kerry is going to win Iowa, though I grant that's a better shot than PA for Bush. Maybe PA is a Rove feint. I also think MI is solid Kerry, whatever the polls say.

Last minute mudball from the Dems? Completely possible, but if they have something, they've done a good job keeping it secret. Bush love-child, aborted lovechild, some Iraq nastiness, anything's possible. Risky business for the Kerrygators, however, and they may not want to try it. Also, Ms. Cahill seems to be a little bit less of a total scumbag than the Arkansas crowd. But maybe not. So, the election promises to be horribly exciting.

posted by thomas at 10/27/2004 05:31:00 PM

 
Worrisome thoughts from Morris
By Tom Smith

Polls are unreliable this year and other worries for W. All by the smartest man who has ever been caught barking like a dog for a prostitute. Which gives us another rule for life. If you like to do embarrassing things with prostitutes, make very sure you create no record thereof.
posted by thomas at 10/26/2004 02:38:00 PM

 
'ave a cuppa tea
By Tom Smith

Tea may improve memory and fight dementia.

Which reminds me:

The Kinks
Have A Cuppa Tea Album Lyrics:
Muswell Hillbillies

Granny's always ravin' and rantin'
And she's always puffin' and pantin',
And she's always screaming and shouting,
And she's always brewing up tea.

Grandpappy's never late for his dinner,
Cos he loves his leg of beef
And he washes it down with a brandy,
And a fresh made cup of tea.

Chorus: Have a cuppa tea, have a cuppa tea,
have a cuppa tea, have a cuppa tea,
Halleluja, halleluja, halleluja, Rosie Lea
Halleluja, halleluja, halleluja Rosie Lea.

If you feel a bit under the weather,
If you feel a little bit peeved,
Take granny's stand-by potion For any old cough or wheeze.
It's a cure for hepatitis it's a cure for chronic insomnia,
It's a cure for tonsilitis and for water on the knee.

Chorus

Tea in the morning, tea in the evening, tea at supper time,
You get tea when it's raining, tea when it's snowing. Tea when the weather's fine,
You get tea as a mid-day stimulant You get tea with your afternoon tea
For any old ailment or disease
For Christ sake have a cuppa tea.

Chorus,

Whatever the situation whatever the race or creed,
Tea knows no segregation, no class nor pedigree
It knows no motivations, no sect or organisation,
It knows no one religion, Nor political belief.

Chorus.

posted by thomas at 10/26/2004 02:12:00 PM

 
Try this in France
By Tom Smith

Here's the concept. Go to France and say, "I'm gay, and I'm a Jew!" They wouldn't know whether to make criticism of your lifestyle illegal, or beat you up! Those darn French. So chic, they're incoherent.

posted by thomas at 10/25/2004 10:33:00 PM

 
Now that's what I call a correction
By Tom Smith

You could almost get the impression that the Post has it in for Cheney.
posted by thomas at 10/25/2004 10:33:00 PM

 
401k credit cards
By Tom Smith

I think it's a good idea. There will be people who blow their retirement egg at Vegas, but so what? Larry Summers et al. seem right to me. If you make savings more liquid, people will be more likely to save. It's part of that whole ownership of property thing. I wish the Post would tell us how much the inventor is going to make. It's interesting that he and Modigliani patented the idea.

The whole story of the 401(k) is a beautiful thing. I'll link to it someday if I can find an on-line account. It was invented by some executive compensation expert strictly for the use of top executives. Then it sort of got out of control. The IRS wanted to shut the 'loophole' down, but the constinuency in favor of it grew so fast the IRS was stymied. A huge force for the privatization of capital and retirement was born.

401(k) plans continue to grow. They're powerful engines for savings and economic growth because among other things, they create a gigantic risk pool in the form of all the investors out there who bear some risk of market fluctuation, instead of some intermediary, like the backers of defined benefit plans, having to bear it. A beautiful thing. Now, if we can just privatize social security, we'll grow so rich we'll never have to give a damn what Europe thinks about anything again. Maybe that's why Kerry's against it.

posted by thomas at 10/25/2004 03:25:00 PM

 
Euro-fication of UK warfighting
By Tom Smith

An alert Right Coast reader sends me this interesting link about what's going on behind the scenes in Britain's and the EU's plans to transform its military. Neither simple nor encouraging.
posted by thomas at 10/25/2004 11:44:00 AM

 
Cool boat
By Tom Smith

Check this out. A former student of mine is crewing on this new high-tech boat which is being developed for the navy.

I like boats. If surfing doesn't work out for me, I may get one. They may not make surfboards big enough for me to stand up on, but I'm sure they make boats that big. There may be a slight problem with my lovely wife Jeanne, who has refused to go sailing with me since certain incidents on the Potomac years ago, which were entirely not my fault. But that was years ago, so maybe . . .

posted by thomas at 10/25/2004 11:44:00 AM

 
Vintage Eurodrivel
By Tom Smith

Here is Timothy Ash, who is apparently now a professor at Oxford, arguing America must elect Kerry or else our 'alliances' will really be in trouble. I have a book Ash wrote while still a graduate student but which I never read. Now I guess I know I don't need to.

I'm not sure I was present at the same Reagan administration as Ash was. I know Gorby came to DC in 1988, but by then he was a whipped puppy. The idea that Ronnie was turning from confrontation to detente because he'd finally caught the peace train is just rubbish.

As to France and Germany, I mean, truly, has there ever been a more apt application for that famous saying about the Vice Presidency? Our alliances with them are not worth a bucket of warm spit. Let's be real: the French were Saddam's allies, bought and paid for. They have no army that isn't more trouble than it's worth. The Germans could have one if they wanted to, but they don't. If the Brits go wobbly they do, but sucking up to the French is hardly the way to reassure our British allies.

As to Ash's warning, you better watch out, or Europe will decide to become a superpower and oppose you! What a joke. We will be lucky if we don't end up bailing Europe out again from economic catastrophe when their underfunded welfare states implode. It's going to be a long time before they're ready to project power anywhere. The biggest threat they present is selling advanced technology to terrorist states, something France at least has proven adept at.
France has no more business on the security council than Greenland. It would be worth getting upset about except that the UN is such a joke. We should just turn the UN building into condos, and give first dibs to people who got bombed out on 9-11. I think the General Assembly hall would make a great health club, or maybe a disco. Among many tragic things about the UN is all that wasted Manhattan real estate.

Unless something very profound changes in Old Europe, it's just done. Brussels is busy packing the arteries of commerce with bureaucratic lard, no one with a university education is reproducing, they don't believe in military force and certainly not paying for one, Muslims who seem largely to revile Europeans traditions are moving north in droves, and Europe's idea of a leader is a bloated hack like Jacques Chirac. I would be the first to agree that Europe was nice while it lasted, but now its destiny seems to be to become an object lesson in how not flourish in the new world.

posted by thomas at 10/24/2004 11:05:00 PM

 
Canadistan health care
By Tom Smith

Mark Steyn gives us this little nugget:

So this is no time to vote for Europhile delusions. The Continental health and welfare systems John Kerry so admires are, in fact, part of the reason those societies are dying. As for Canada, yes, under socialized health care, prescription drugs are cheaper, medical treatment's cheaper, life is cheaper. After much stonewalling, the Province of Quebec's Health Department announced this week that in the last year some 600 Quebecers had died from C. difficile, a bacterium acquired in hospital. In other words, if, say, Bill Clinton had gone for his heart bypass to the Royal Victoria Hospital in Montreal, he would have had the surgery, woken up the next day swimming in diarrhea and then died. It's a bacterium caused by inattention to hygiene -- by unionized, unsackable cleaners who don't clean properly; by harassed overstretched hospital staff who don't bother washing their hands as often as they should. So 600 people have been killed by the filthy squalor of disease-ridden government hospitals. That's the official number. Unofficially, if you're over 65, the hospitals will save face and attribute your death at their hands to "old age" or some such and then "lose" the relevant medical records. Quebec's health system is a lot less healthy than, for example, Iraq's.

Just so you know, 600 people dying of infections contracted in the hospitals of a single province, especially when the real number is probably a lot higher, is a lot.

Let's put it this way. If you are an American, and traveling to Canada, you should get medical evacuation insurance, just like you should if you are traveling to Liberia. When I took my young 'uns and pregnant wife to Peru summer before last to commune with the rainforest critters, I bought a gold-plated medical evacuation policy that would have covered private jet ambulance and the whole bit. Two hundred bucks for a month and every penny worth it. While we were there, my then 9 year old fell off a fence in the Cathedral Square in Lima, cracked his head on a cobblestone and bled like crazy. My lovely physician wife Jeanne elected to apply pressure and forgoe stitches at the local infirmary, which she didn't want to see, let alone take her child into. Yes, I'm sure there are good doctors in Peru and Canada as well and that with the right combination of contacts and cash you can actually get good medical care. Or you can wrap your kerchief tight and head for Americuh.

I'm not to worried about US medical care. Maybe I should be. In the unfortunate event M. Kerry is elected, there is no way his stupid medical plan will get through Congress. The insurance companies and the drug companies will kill it like the baccilus it is. Like we need our chemo therapy being rationed by the same sort of people that run the DMV. You'd having a better shot bringing back prohibition.

I'm sure rural Arkansas is no bargain, but in any decent sized American city, you can get medical care of amazingly high quality. It helps to have insurance, but you can also just show up at an emergency room. Health care financing in this country is very messed up, but the quality of care in your average American town, is, I would bet, better than all but the quite wealthy get in France or Germany. In Canada, you probably just drive south. So why don't Americans live longer? Because we are so fat and get so little exercise. Take away our health care, and we'd really be in trouble.

posted by thomas at 10/24/2004 08:37:00 AM

 
Interesting but scary
By Tom Smith

New voters. Do they know what they're doing?
posted by thomas at 10/24/2004 08:35:00 AM

 
Just another terrorist
By Tom Smith

Time to add another name to the no-fly list. Charlie Booker wouldn't want to come to an awful country like the USA anyway. Better to hang out with Cat Stevens bin Laden or whatever his name is.
posted by thomas at 10/23/2004 07:07:00 PM

 
A scary dream
By Tom Smith

I was walking my dog, when suddenly I was attacked by swarms of nannites, all armed with assault rifles. Fortunately, there were cats around, so I was able to grab one by the tail and use it to beat off the nannites. None of this would happen, I thought, if we had sensible regulations on nannites and assault rifles. Cats are useful, however. Some guy was standing there recording the whole thing with his digital camera.

Sorry. Hits have been down lately and I am suffering from pangs of envy.
posted by thomas at 10/23/2004 10:40:00 AM

 
Professor Tom the Oracle speaks
By Tom Smith

Since I know you're dying to know, here's what I think is going to happen in the election. I concede it is based mostly on watching the betting markets, that do show signs of manipulation. But I'm guessing no one has bothered to manipulate the state lines, which have been pretty consistent over the past few weeks.

First, I think Bush will win Florida. Jeb has been good on hurricanes, and the line has not dipped below 60 percent for the GOP. The Dems may pull off wonders with the get out the prisoner vote, but I doubt it. If Bush wins the swamp state, it will be very hard for the Dems to win.

I doubt Bush will win Ohio. It is possible, but it requires optimism, never my strong suit, to say he'll win. Bush was above 60 in the line a few weeks ago, but has been hovering just above 50 for awhile. Anything's possible, but with corruption and GOTV (closely related phenomena), I would bet on the Dems in Ohio.

Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Minnesota going for the GOP? Dream on. If that happens, polls are seriously flawed in ways markets can't see. Possible but unlikely. New Mexico? I don't think so. NM is, how to put this delicately?, a stinking cesspool of political corruption. The land of the enchanted, disappearing ballot box. I love NM. Georgeous state. But politically hygenic, it is not. They probably already have Kerry ballots printed up and ready to go if necessary. Maybe they should just declare Kerry the winner in NM and get it over with.

So, if Bush wins Florida, and everywhere else where he should win, he will probably win the election. Not surprisingly, when they're not in the throes of manipulation, that's pretty much what the bookies say. The lines on Bush winning the election, and Bush winning Florida have been pretty much in lockstep, now, both a little above 60. Whatever creepoid has been making runs on tradesports will probably try it again before 11/2, so watch for that.

Of course, anything could happen. Terrorist attack. Last minute Dem mudball. A Bush lovechild is a sobering thought, I grant you. Maybe both Bush daughters are lesbians? There is no theory that says there's always a last minute momentum shift--that's just superstition.

Another possibility is that the polls are systematically skewed left, as it turned out they were in Australia. Or skewed GOP because of all the young and restless who are going to stop watching MTV long enough to vote, assuming they can find the polls while stoned. And they don't show up in surveys because they only use cellphones. Which is also sobering. How often can you say "it was like so totally cute!" I don't think they should be allowed to watch TV unsupervised, lot alone vote, except perhaps in New Mexico, where they could do little harm. Voter registration drives are like so totally irresponsible.

So, I think it's about 60-40 Bush, odds wise. It's like being on a flight, and pilot says you have a 60 percent chance of landing safely.

posted by thomas at 10/23/2004 09:45:00 AM

 
"Sharedholder activism" as blackmail
By Tom Smith

So here, apparently, is what happened with "Stolen Honor." Bill Lerach, strike suit entrepreneur, threatened Sinclair with a shareholder suit if it ran the movie. Then the controller of the state of New York, in charge of a public employee pension funds, threatened Sinclair with legal action as well. Sinclair caved, but who can blame them. Running the movie probably would have been good business, but standing up to political thuggery is not.

This may be the most outrageous thing Bill Lerach has done since he vowed, with respect to legal economist Dan Fischel, to "put that little fucker out of business." A remark that cost him $50 million or so when Fischel sued him, and won. Does anyone need to ask if trial lawyers have too much power when they use it to muzzle the free press? Why is it, someone remind me, that we call these people "liberals"? The only thing liberal about them is the liberal way they use their money to keep themselves in power. It is time everyone with a libertarian bone in their bodies realize the Democrats are as hostile to liberty as the most benighted, snake handling, bible thumping fundamentalist nutcase. At least those nutcases don't call themselves liberals. It would be giving Lerach to much credit to say he is just trying to do the public the good of sparing them a movie that would be bad for them. If Bush wins, the odds of tort reform go up. Shutting down a movie critical of Kerry is good business for the tort kings of the world. Of course, the liberal thing to do would be to congratulate yourself on the good you've done for the public, that just happens to be so good for business, preferably at a charity event where 5 percent goes to charity organizations, who in turn spend a little on your favorite group of victims. Make sure they're registered to vote.

As to the New York state pension fund, well, some of us in the corporate law world said a long time ago that shareholder activism was a bad idea. Pension funds are run by bureaucrats, who are no more immune to the temptations of power than anybody else. The idea that a New York pension fund has an economic stake in whether Sinclair shows a movie, which probably would have garnered many viewers, is beyond absurd. The political hack who made that call should be tossed out of her job, but who's going to launch the hostile tender offer on the pension fund and the state of New York? Oh, I forgot, nobody monitors the Solons at the pension funds.

You can read Roger Simon's review of the movie here. It sounds like a right wing Farenheit 9-11, except with more facts.

If you don't want Bill Lerach deciding what you see, you can see the movie here.

posted by thomas at 10/23/2004 08:53:00 AM

 
Get a new cat
By Tom Smith

I hadn't heard of Genetic Savings and Clone until my former student now M&A lawyer Ryan Murr mentioned it to me. You can get little Fluffy cloned for a cool 50 large. Love means not having to settle for an old, dead cat.
posted by thomas at 10/22/2004 04:18:00 PM

 
Arnold is such a stud
By Tom Smith

It helps to have your own fortune, I suppose. I love the way he refuses to toady to the usual suspects.

As to Indian casinos, come on. An unbelievable racket.
posted by thomas at 10/22/2004 04:07:00 PM

 
New Bush ad
By Tom Smith

Here's a link to the new Bush ad featuring wolves.

My only objection is I like wolves. They are extremely cool animals, even if they do occassionally eat livestock. Wolves are coming back to my native Idaho, which makes the ranchers mad, but makes the forests more attractive to me, at least.
posted by thomas at 10/22/2004 04:02:00 PM

 
Congress should take this in hand
By Tom Smith

Readers of this blog know it takes a lot to get me upset. I am a model of equanimimtyewnh equimimminty calm-mindedness.

But this really ticks me off. If a member of the armed forces is in the field, then anything done that has the effect of disenfranchising him should be taken as a grave violation of law.

Congress should really pass legislation on this one. If they can pass the Voting Rights Act, presumably they have the power. The states should just be told to stop fooling around with the military vote, or else. If it weren't for people in the military, none of us would be voting at all.

Maybe the Democrats should try out a new slogan: "Of course we support our troops; we just don't want to count their votes!"

Or how about: "Democracy: Too important to be left to those who die for it."
posted by thomas at 10/21/2004 01:25:00 PM

 
interesting analysis by Barone
By Tom Smith

Veteran poll watcher and grown-up Barone opines.
posted by thomas at 10/21/2004 09:03:00 AM

 
Astute analysis at RCP
By Tom Smith

Some smart poll watching at RCP.
posted by thomas at 10/20/2004 07:19:00 PM

 
How to think like a left wing Brit
By Tom Smith

Buckeyes (note to British people -- that's someone from Ohio) seem to be really offended that Brit lefties of the Guardian sort are presuming to tell them how to vote. Of course, any American, including Kerry's campaign, could have told them that would be the case. But don't worry, these Brits really do know how to handle terrorists. Really. Their apparent lack of insight into other cultures does not extend to the Middle East. That, they really do understand, and deeply. If someone cuts off your head, you have to let them cut off your other head, so to speak.

In defense of the UK, let me just say, Tony Blair. The SAS. That officer who carried the umbrella into Normandy and led with it.

The leftish UK media is like ours. It does not speak for the Brits, who still have a lot of steel in their spines. And same for the Canadians. The elite around Toronto is hopeless, but many in Western Canada are on our side. In the future, we really might want to consider buying large parts of Canada. Many people who live there enjoy practicing their religion, for example, and would like to live in a country where they can do it, even with all the incredibly complicated human rights issues that raises. If we do this, we would have to be prepared for shock to our dental care infrastructure. Canadians in turn can teach us how not to be so fat.

posted by thomas at 10/20/2004 11:07:00 AM

 
Bill O O O'Reilly
By Tom Smith

He is done. He is so done. In fact, if you wanted him to be properly chewy in the middle, you should have taken him out 20 minutes ago. Do you care? I don't care.

As a general rule, when speaking to a female subordinate on the phone, do not discuss nipples. It's sort of an absolute rule. It's not that hard to comply with.

I did a little experiment the other night. I tried watching Bill for a few minutes. It didn't work. He's gone from being obnoxious, overbearing Irish uncle, to obnoxious, overbearing Irish uncle with a dirty sex thing going. Big difference. Big yukky difference. Bye Bill.

I can honestly say I never liked the guy's show, and always found him insufferable. I was sad when Rush's drug problem came to light. The easiest thing in the world is to get addicted to pain pills after a serious, invasive surgery. Then to get in the sights of some ambitious DA. Rush did not deserve that. Marriage down the tubes too. But big bad Bill. It is not that difficult to avoid calling your female subordinates to fill them in on your latest sexual fantasies. I mean, get a hobby or something. Geez.

Yes, I am assuming he did. That's because I think he did, on the grounds of what I consider reliable, semi-plausible rumors. I think it's too late for him to come clean. He'd have to get a whole new personality. Though maybe that would be a good thing. Anyway, enough time wasted on Mr. O. Gone and soon forgotten.
posted by thomas at 10/18/2004 03:45:00 PM

 
Is a Beslan style attrocity in the US possible?
By Tom Smith

This is disturbing. Put it together with the al-Qaeda laptop in Baghdad with the San Diego school disaster preparedness documents on it, and one gets worried. Between now and the election would be a good time for school officials to be alert. (via Belmont Club)
posted by thomas at 10/17/2004 11:37:00 AM

 
Geniuses at NYT psychoanalyze Bush
By Tom Smith

If, like the average Times reader, you spend a lot of time worrying whether your analyst likes you/finds you attractive/meant by saying "well, times up (as if he were relieved!)/goes when you can't reach him/managed to get a rent-controlled apartment so close to the park, well, you might swallow this kind of thing.

If you don't want to read the whole thing, and who could blame you, I will sum it up for you. Bush is a kind of faith-based robot, who hears voices from Jesus telling him what to do in Iraq. It's disturbing, it's eerie, it's frightening, it's very, very not you. Could you pass the fresh-squeezed orange juice? When did this place get so popular? I get the magazine! Now, to continue. Jesus talks to Bush because, not to put too fine a point on it, Bush is a religio-fundamentalo-quasi-fascistico-snake-handlerific nutball who talks to Jesus. How do we know this? Well, it says so in the Times, doesn't it? Some things you just have to take on faith.

Actually, I am a person of faith, and I must admit I am impressed by the deep insight the Times has into how the brain activity of the faithful goes. Yup, that's what it's like. You have these intuitions, and you just know, heck! That's Jesus talkin'! This morning, for example. I get on the scale and think "oh fuck! That can't be right! I can't have gained four pounds in one day! That's when Jesus speaks up "Tom, it is possible." He calls me Tom. I usually stick to "Lord." "But, Lord, I didn't eat that much! I've been making an effort to be moderate . . ." Jesus points out, kindly, but firmly, "Well, there was the coconut lime cake that your lovely wife Jeanne made for Mark's first birthday . . ." "But I only had one piece of that!" I protest. "Well, three actually, and if you count all the 'slivers' and 'tastes' . . ."

Perhaps it's like that for Bush, too.

When I see how objective the Times is, I just get outraged all over again that Sinclair broadcasting would dare to show an anti-Kerry movie right before the election. Where are their journalist ethics? Where are their analysts? Where is their magazine section? Have they no fresh squeezed orange juice? It is all very shocking.

And before somebody else tries to make something of it, my female labrador Biscuit is usually the one to try to "mount" my male labrador Denali. What is that about? Why is Biscuit so interested in my birkenstocks? I don't know, but I love her just the same.
posted by thomas at 10/17/2004 10:37:00 AM

 
What the blogosphere needs now . . .
By Tom Smith

. . . is a market capitalization weighted index of all the political betting markets on the 2004 election. Realclearpolitics has this very useful site. But look: on tradesports Bush is at 53 or so, while on the IEM he is more like 58. What gives? I suspect tradesports is being manipulated, but who knows? Then there are all the other sites with their lines. Can you do the probabilities in your head from the x/y odds? I can't. Some industrious techonologically gifted person needs to set something up that would give us a moving average (or something) of all these lines together, in percentage form. That would give you a market indicator that would be much more difficult to manipulate, easier to understand, and a better indicator of what was going to happen.
posted by thomas at 10/17/2004 10:12:00 AM

 
check this out -- offshore info havens
By Tom Smith

Private offshore data banks assessing people for terrorism risk. Private companies doing things you couldn't do in the US because to be a terrorist, it helps to be (gasp!) a 23 year old Saudi national. Story here.
posted by thomas at 10/16/2004 05:05:00 PM

 
Canadians on drugs
By Tom Smith

AA is correct about drugs from Canada. I have known this for some time, but have been too busy to write about it. Our plucky neighbors in the great white North free ride off American drug companies and we who buy drugs at market prices. If everybody paid Canadian prices, there wouldn't be any new drugs to buy, because the Canadians are paying prices that don't include the costs of R&D. If everyone tries to free ride, the ride sinks.

Maybe we should pass some law to prevent the rest of the world from free riding on Americans who are paying for this pharmeceutical gravy train. Not very good metaphor, but you see what I mean.

If you meet a socialist, he will say, "so let's regulate the prices in the US and Canada, and put it at a level that will provide for adequate R and D!" How much is adequate? Well, we'll have to set up a bureau of medical research to decide that, and how to allocate it among the various companies. What about new entrants to the market? You can't have everything. Competition is overrated. It's just one of the many beautiful things about regulation. The more you do, the more you need to do.

On a related point -- Not to be mean about it, but, if the Canadian health care system is so great, what's with all the bad teeth? Does the toothpaste freeze or something? I'm not saying everyone should have teeth like John Kerry, but come on.
posted by thomas at 10/16/2004 04:17:00 PM

 
Victor Hanson and the tragic view of things
By Tom Smith

Hanson is on in this piece. I hope he's right about the upcoming election.

Maybe conservatives do take a more tragic view of the world.
posted by thomas at 10/16/2004 09:04:00 AM

 
This is encouraging
By Tom Smith

Powerline thinks Bush is going to win and it has a point. Bush is campaigning in Blue states, and so is Kerry.
posted by thomas at 10/15/2004 05:20:00 PM

 
A lot to look forward to
By Tom Smith

This is pretty good:

You also have to ask yourself, who is going to carry out Kerry's multilateral approach? And on that score, things simply get worse. A Kerry White House would mean the Madeleine Albright B Team moving into senior foreign policy positions. And, with the notable exception of Richard Holbrooke (his hair may be on fire, but he gets things done), this would be disastrous. These are the same folks who fiddled for 8 years on counter terror, negotiated a terrifyingly naive nuke deal with North Korea, and generally treat foreign policy as a rhetorical exercise. This is a team who has demonstrated, in past position of influence, an alarming propensity to get rolled by their foreign counterparts. Let's pick just two: Susan Rice? Jamie Rubin?! Are you serious?? During her sojourn as assistant secretary for Africa in Albright's State Department, Rice had to be consistently bailed out of trouble by career diplomats. As for Rubin, he is anti-gravitas. He's Edwards-lite.

It comes from a response to DD, who is going to vote for Kerry for pretty unpersuasive reasons. It would be interesting to try to articulate how it is that smart people go wrong on political issues. When smart, young people go wrong, it often seem to me a sort of naivite, as if there is some workable way to fight terrorism that does not involve many, large bombs and lots of scary guys. For older people, I think more often it's that they've ossified into some ideological view of the world.

I really hope Kerry loses. At this point I would rather have Hillary as President than Kerry. She would be more of a man in foreign policy than he would be. She may be a shrieking socialist, but at least she's genuinely mean. I think once she figured out what is going on in the Middle East, she would be a terror. She scares me, and I'm not even a terrorist. Whether the economy would survive her efforts to ruin it, is another question, however. Bush is no Reagan, but at least he is tested. Kerry, I fear, will do his silly thing with our 'allies,' and not realize what a fool is being made of him. He is too much of a fool, I fear, to realize it. I also fear Kerry will follow a cut and run policy in Iraq, which really will be disastrous. I suppose the upside is that if Kerry is elected, there will be much that is comic, in a dark sort of way.

posted by thomas at 10/15/2004 04:56:00 PM

 
PC madness at Amherst
By Tom Smith

I'm no con lawyer, but if Eugene says it's unconstitutional, that's good enough for me. If college administrators would just follow the general rule, "don't be an hysterical nutcase," most of these problems would go away.
posted by thomas at 10/15/2004 10:10:00 AM

 
Emerson was a philistine
By Tom Smith

I kind of like all that New England individualism (e.g., I like Walden), but I can't think of Emerson the same way since I read (somewhere) what he said about reading. He said that whenever he found himself getting "absorbed" in a book, he would stop reading until the feeling went away. He said you should only read for a purpose, such as to find stuff to support your theories. That ranks up there as one of the most philistinian remarks about books and reading I have ever heard, along with "Have you read all these books?" (Which is like asking a wine collector if he has drunk all the wines represented in his cellar. No person who cares about books could ask such a question.)
posted by thomas at 10/14/2004 10:28:00 AM

 
Guilty pleasure
By Tom Smith

I just discovered a big comfy chair in a little used Starbucks which is a hot spot for the wireless network of the office across the parking lot. So I can sit there and actually work on my brilliant article and nobody even knows where I am! O bliss! (I need internet access to work. Most articles are online and it's so nice just to be able to bookmark them. Paper is evil.)

It is wrong to free ride on somebody's wireless network this way? Maybe technically. But it doesn't seem any worse really to me than standing outside Isaac Stern (or some great living musician)'s window and listening to him practice. They really should encrypt their network, but I'm not about to try to get any information from them; I wouldn't know how, anyway. I guess you could apply the Golden Rule and say, would I want somebody free riding on my wireless network? Well, no. But if I knew to the same degree of certainty that that person is as honest as I am, I wouldn't care. Of course, that's impossible to know. You could say I'm just converting what would otherwise be wasted bandwidth into something valuable, and in my case, incredibly valuable. Along these lines, some guy was recently arrested in SoCal for driving around at night without pants, laptop on lap, looking for wireless networks to sponge off of. As to the sort of site he was interested in, I will leave that to you. I'm glad the cops got him. I, on the other hand, am downloading economics articles, which is an entirely different thing. There is nothing remotely prurient about them.

posted by thomas at 10/14/2004 10:12:00 AM

 
more tradesports
By Tom Smith

Bush is getting hammered again on tradesports, but I'm not sure it means anything. He took a five point drop after the first debate, then bounced back within two days. These markets are small enough to be manipulated, and maybe they are being. I can't tell how the volume is measured, but it looks like it could be as little at 22,000 USD or so for today, which ain't much.

On the debate, I don't have much to say. Fox heads seem to think Bush did well. He always reminds me of a student who knows the right answer, but has an agonizing time of getting it out. Kerry was whiny and dour, but as an academic, I am used to that. It's sort of soothingly familiar. It struck me that he was pretty loose with his facts. But who's counting. I will be interested to see if the polls are as far off as they were in Australia. I doubt they will be. In 2000, they were alarmingly accurate, especially the evil Zogby. OTOH both Reps and Dems are supposedly involved in all kinds of newfangled voter registration and get out the vote activities. In legal circles, this is called vote fraud. Democrats traditionally attempt to extend the franchise to dead people and non-existent people. Republicans try to stop this for racial reasons because these voters were minorities when they were alive, or would be minorities, if they actually existed.
posted by thomas at 10/13/2004 09:36:00 PM

 
Oh those mass graves
By Tom Smith

I still can't figure out what the all those great moralists and lovers of humanity have to say about them.
posted by thomas at 10/13/2004 08:35:00 PM

 
Why I don't read mainstream literary fiction
By Tom Smith

Look at all these novelists voting for Kerry. If we can't trust their politics, why should be trust the stories they make up?

I can't read what passes for serious fiction these days. It strikes me as tedious, and anywhere from spiritually empty to misguided. Most fiction usually has some sort of moral content. The problem with most modern fiction of the serious sort is it is just morally off. Updike doesn't seem to realize that most men who cheat on their wives are not interesting souls, but assholes; Frazen is so dazzled by his own writing skill that he thinks it's OK he has nothing to say; Amy Tan, well, would her novels ever have been published if they were about white boys and men instead of Chinese girls and women? Some of these writers I have not heard of. I am very comfortable I am not missing anything. Somebody who doesn't write that well, but has a moral vision and is very funny, Tom Wolfe, is hounded from the club (not that he cares much). Of course nobody should care how these pompous toads vote. But it is reason to look for something else to read.

posted by thomas at 10/13/2004 01:52:00 PM

 
Was Kerry dishonorably discharged?
By Tom Smith

This is curious. Can't somebody in DOD just leak Kerry's records? Would that be wrong? I thought we had a right to know, and all that. Maybe it will be an October surprise. Then we could get to hear all the moaning and groaning about how Republicans should not do that sort of thing.

posted by thomas at 10/13/2004 01:27:00 PM

 
Memo to Human Rights Watch
By Tom Smith

Human rights watch should relax. They're somewhere safe, trading intel for toilet paper.

posted by thomas at 10/12/2004 09:41:00 AM

 
Good news is no news
By Tom Smith

Could the MSM be any more upset about the successful election in Afghanistan? They seem to think it's a tragedy on the scale of 9/11.

If you ever are unlucky enough to experience some disaster first hand, you'll see it for yourself. The times when wildfires were bearing down on my neighborhood, the excitement of the local press was palpable. You could almost hear them shouting, "more flames! more houses! more casualties!" I couldn't watch the news without losing it. It terms of information about where the fire was, they were useless.

Anyway, it bears repeating that the election in A-stan was peaceful and to all appearances, fair. Which makes it a non-event.

posted by thomas at 10/12/2004 09:34:00 AM

 
Those darn wmd's
By Tom Smith

Fox News had one of their analysts on this morning (Sunday) saying there was stuff in the back of Duelfer Report to the effect that they had interviewed only 30 of 200 chemical weapons scientists, and that huge amounts of chemical and nuclear weapons stuff is unaccounted for. He also mentioned that British and Israeli and "some factions" of U.S. intelligence think large amounts of Iraqi chemical weapons have been moved to Syria, along with the missing scientists. He also said Saddam might have been carrying on nuclear weapons projects in Lybia. He predicted the Duelfer Report would have a short shelf life.

But I could not find this story on the Foxnews.com site. Too bad. It was very interesting.
posted by thomas at 10/10/2004 08:56:00 AM

 
More tradesports
By Tom Smith

Bush seems to be moving back to 60 and Kerry to 40 on tradesports. I don't know why. Glad to see it, though.

We're having Freedom toast for breakfast. If the French pay us enough, we'll change its name back.
posted by thomas at 10/10/2004 08:56:00 AM

 
When bad things happen to utterly evil people
By Tom Smith

Some talk that combined SAS/Delta Force elements are closing in on Zarsicko, the head beheader in Iraq. Wouldn't that be loverly? More info on Allah's psycho-bat.

AND appropriately enough, the SAS was used to hunt down and capture and kill escaping Nazi war criminals after WWII. So they have a proud history of anti- psycho-killer action.
posted by thomas at 10/09/2004 09:48:00 AM

 
Debka on Sinai massacre
By Tom Smith

Debka says the explosives used in the Sinai resort massacres were of Iranian manufacture. One more reason not to let Iran have nukes. They are dangerous enough with C-4 (or whatever it is they use).
posted by thomas at 10/09/2004 09:48:00 AM

 
San Diego culture
By Tom Smith

Some people say San Diego doesn't offer much culture. I don't know what they are thinking. For example, I just found out from one of my students that the guy with a credible claim to be the world's best grappler, Dean Lister, lives right here in San Diego. Here's a picture gallery of Lister in action. The shot of the floor of the "cage" covered in blood is a bit much, but it certainly makes a point.

He used to train at City Boxing downtown, and is said to be about to open a new dojo soon. Might be worth checking out.

While I'm on the subject, let me mention a book. Many, many of the books written on subjects such as weight training, fitness, and fighting arts are such unbelievable rubbish. They may have truth in them, but they are so badly written and full of various forms of promotional baloney, you just can't get through them. So how refreshing to come across a book that is very well written, clear, full of straightforward practical advice, written by (with the help of a professional writer -- and it shows) a true star in the field, Renzo Gracie, and as a bonus, has an introduction that is the best short history of "mixed martial arts" I have ever read: Gracie and Danaher's Mastering Jujitsu. This book would be a bargain a half the price.
posted by thomas at 10/09/2004 09:24:00 AM

 
More bad news
By Tom Smith

Sorry to be the dead possum in the swimming pool, but it looks like the tradesports.com lines are still pointing clearly to a tightening of the race after last night's debate. The change has held this morning, so it's not just a blip. It's now a 10 point spread in the price of Bush vs. Kerry futures, where it was about 20 before the debate. That's cutting the spread in half. That's heap bad medicine.

So what the market she be thinking? I don't know, and nobody else does either. I note that Iowa tightened dramatically (there are state by state lines as well). Florida tightened some. W still seems OK in Ohio, but it's tighter than it was. You'd have to know the local politics in these states, but my guess, and it's only a guess, is that there are more Catholics in Ohio and that Iowa is more socially liberal. Bush was quite firm on the culture of life last night. He made it quite clear he thought abortion was wrong, plain wrong. You could see one woman in particular, sitting up in the corner in a black pants suit, scowling like crazy. (The idea they were a bunch of undecided voters was rubbish. The combination of question order and format gave Kerry a big advantage. The GOP negotiators let the Pres down on this one.)

It's all rather frustrating. Of course, things may change. If I were an amoral Bush advisor, I would tell him to make Kerry noises about how much he respects people he disagrees with. When Kerry said that, and talked about how he was a Catholic and his religion got him through Vietnam, I wanted to puke. But maybe it's something else, or a combination of things. We'll see if the race continues to tighten. Bush is still the favorite. But not by much. Take a deck of cards, and take out the red kings and queens. Now shuffle the deck and draw a card at random. If it's black, Bush wins. If it's red, Kerry wins. Roughly, that's how close this race is now.

posted by thomas at 10/09/2004 08:45:00 AM

 
Market reacts to debate
By Tom Smith

I thought Bush did a pretty good job, but the tradesports.com futures market moved markedly against Bush over the course of the debate. Bush is down a full five points, and Kerry up, over the past 2 hours or so. That's dramatic. That's what markets do when they think they have new information. What was it? I don't know, but if I had to guess, I would say Bush came on too strong on the 'culture of life' stuff. Personally, I loved it. My favorite person in the debate was the person of blondeness who asked Kerry in the second to last question what he would do to reassure a person who didn't want their tax dollars spent on abortions. I thought Kerry's answer was lame and Bush was strong. But what plays in the country is another question. Bush's Iowa futures were down especially. Maybe Iowa is socially liberal? Bush also lost ground in his Florida futures. Maybe all those conflicted Jewish persons in south Florida who like Bush on Israel but not on abortion. Hard to say. Anyway, I think the race just tightened considerably because Bush came over as a conservative, and Kerry, opportunist that he is, came over as moderate. Total hooey, of course, but how do you keep fools from voting?

I also thought the questions were biased against Bush. What did you expect? What three things do you regret? What kind of question is that? Notice Kerry took it as, things Bush should regret. But that's another story. Sorry, kids, time to start worrying.

Hmmmm. The spread's already closed to four, and there are some big contracts being traded. Might be wise to see how it settles down in the morning.
posted by thomas at 10/08/2004 08:23:00 PM

 
Shaving and thinking
By Tom Smith

Just so my students and fans don't get confused by Dean Rodriguez's comments below, as a person of beardedness, I do not shave in the morning, and in fact have not done so since 1980, the year of the great imbeardation. My lovely wife Jeanne has never seen me without a beard. I once said I was going to shave my beard, and she said if I did, she would shave her head. I use one of those buzzer things on it every other week or so. So, as a law professor, when do I get a chance to think? I do a lot of my thinking in the car, as I drive to and from school, various kid events, etc. etc. For a long time, it seems, every day. Sort of like my own little talk radio station.
posted by thomas at 10/08/2004 01:13:00 PM

 
Hush, little Bushies, don't say a word
By Tom Smith

As my legions of fans know, I spend a lot of time worrying about the future. This is partly because I am fascinated by the whole idea of uncertainty and (the related idea of) risk, and all the various things we clever primates do to cope with it.

So, for instance, debka reports today that Iran has started producing hexaflouride gas, which is the stuff you put into the centrifuge to enrich uranium, which is stuff you use to make what they call in Iran "the great big Jew killer." (Were that a gross exageration!) Both my internet prowling and my sources (or source) in the spec ops/intel community tell me that when the isotopes that reveal that uranium is being enriched are detected, those Israeli F15's and 16's, they be takin' off. Without further ado. I read that the best Israeli pilots are already practicing on mock ups of Iranian plants in the Negev. You go, Jews. There's something about a Strike Eagle with a Star of David on its tail that gives me a warm, fuzzy feeling. And, local interest!, I think at least part of the GBMFB's that they drop on buried WMD plants are made right here in San Diego!

It raises the questions of what those darn bathrobe-clad religion nutcases in Iran are thinking. They may be thinking that Israel and the US will think Iran must have super hardened underground plants in operation, because we think Iran would not be so stupid as to pursue its nuclear arming program as openly as it seems to be doing. And so we won't bomb them, for fear we will just anger them and not really destroy their program. This could be correct, or it could be a bluff. The trouble is, the prospect of a nuclearly armed Iran is scary enough that bombing the bejesus out of them is still the dominant strategy. I guess they don't teach game theory in mooolah school. Maybe the mooolahs will go right to the edge and not start enriching. If they don't get bombed, that is probably what will have happened.

Anyway, that is all just a digression to my main point, which is, just because an election is close, and this one is going to be, does not mean there is a lot of uncertainty about the outcome. If you look at the tradesports lines, what the market "thinks" is that there is a 60-40 probability that Bush will get roughly 275 electoral votes. In terms of electoral votes, that's close, but close doesn't count in elections, only horseshoes and horseraces. A 40 percent chance of getting Sir John of the Lovely Nails and Silky Pony is still nasty, but what can you do? My point is, you can be certain your guy will win by a tight margin, and that is better than an expected margin for your guy of 10 points, where the latter is very uncertain (has a very high standard deviation). Something like this is probably going on, as the futures market holds steady at 60-40 for Bush, even as the polls show the race tightening. So don't panic. If the time comes to panic, trust me. I am not Hugh Hewitt. I think bad things, they happen every day. I will let you know.

posted by thomas at 10/06/2004 09:26:00 AM

 
Grade deflation
By Tom Smith

We here at USD law school have had a strict, and I mean strict, mandatory curve for a long time. Now Princeton is leading the way against undergraduate grade inflation. Could be a trend.

posted by thomas at 10/05/2004 11:29:00 PM

 
The VP debates
By Tom Smith

I listened to the debate, and I really thought X came over as more vice presidential. He had a lot more style than Y and his answers were far more cogent. My wisdom may not be the conventional wisdom, but I can be dreadfully insightful, which is why so many people visit my blog. What was Y's problem? Was he young, old, tired, worried, scared, drained, nervous or what?

I thought X really clobbered Y on the Z question. How could anyone think that Q is the answer to Z!

Here is a paradox for you. Anybody who thinks that their own opinion of who 'won' a spectacle style debate is meaningful, is displaying an ignorance of psychology and politics so profound that you know immediately not to take their opinions seriously. The polls have more information in them than Andrew Sullivan or Hugh Hewitt's gut, but not much. Hugh Hewitt is drunk on his cheerful optimism, maybe partly because he is sure Jesus loves him. Andrew Sullivan is comically unobjective, ever since he gave up on the Republicans for being anti-gay. Not to be a poop, but all this instant blogospheric bloviation on the debates is very silly. It makes bloggers look like a bunch of opinionated, self-obsessed, news junkies . . . Oh, wait! We are!

More: Too much information from Andrew:

Well, I could easily be wrong, but I have a feeling Cheney will crush Edwards tonight. The format is God's gift to Daddy. They'll both be seated at a table, immediately allowing Cheney to do his assured, paternal, man-of-the-world schtick that makes me roll on my back and ask to have my tummy scratched. (Yes, I do think that Cheney is way sexier than Edwards. Not that you asked or anything.)

One could say a lot of things about this comment. But mainly, observe that this reaction is highly idiosyncratic. Sullivan is in no position to judge what most Americans think, and probably not what most gay Americans think. At least I hope not.

posted by thomas at 10/05/2004 10:42:00 PM

 
Funny birthday card
By Tom Smith

My lovely sister in law sent me the following birthday card, which cracks me up. (Thursday is my fsomething birthday):

Picture of skinny old guy, white shoes and belt, golf shirt, next to solid old wife, short gray hair, golf shirt. He is pointing authoritatively at something off shore; it looks like San Diego
"And that land mass there is called 'stick out point' because of the way it sticks out into the water . . ."
[Inside card:] One year older, one year closer to making up crap.

And then, in class yesterday, a male student says to me: "Has anyone ever told you you look just like that guy on the [some talk show I've never heard of].
Female student: You mean the old guy?
Me: Old guy?!!
Female student: I'm sorry. My filter doesn't seem to be working.
posted by thomas at 10/05/2004 03:21:00 PM

 
Target Iran
By Tom Smith

Excellent discussion of what our friends the crazed Iranian religious nutcases are up to. At globalsecurity.org. Very good site BTW. And the Iranians really do have tons of chemical weapons, really.

Is it possible Bush et al. would attack Iran in October, in a joint US-Israeli operation? Lind thinks so (follow the link from above). Nahhhh. I don't think that's going to happen. But after he's reelected? Quite possible, I think.
posted by thomas at 10/05/2004 01:12:00 PM

 
USD Law School Emerging as the Center of the Universe
By Tom Smith

I'm relieved to find something I can agree with Brian about. His take on the latest bit of law school puffery to appear in my mail box is just right.

I do think characterizing this sort of thing as "law porn" is unfair, however. Thus, suppose completely by accident I end up at a website that shows Pamela Anderson washing a car, a task for some reason she has decided to undertake without clothes. Actually, that is practical, given that they just get wet anyway. Now, a day later, I have no trouble calling the image to mind and telling you who was in it and what it was about. (Please bear in mind this is a hypothetical.) Now take the brochure from UCLA. Who was in it? What are they teaching? What is it that makes them so unbelievably important, so mind stunningly original? For the life of me, I cannot recall. I vaguely recollect thinking, oh, more IP guys. What a racket. I'm not saying that's a correct thought, or a fair thought. I'm just trying to be honest with you and tell you that's the thought I had. But that's about it. Well, I do recall one of the new hires was wearing a suit jacket and a mock turtleneck of a clashing color, which to me said "I am just 2 cool 2 B forgotten," and since I do recall what he was wearing, albeit unfavorably, I guess he is at least half right. In any event, my point is, calling it law "porn" gives it a vividness that it lacks. A small point, I grant you, but worth pondering nonetheless. Should law schools consider posting pictures of law professors washing cars without clothes on? A calendar perhaps? They should not. That would be law porn, and that would be wrong.

posted by thomas at 10/05/2004 10:11:00 AM

 
Who wants to be a billionaire?
By Tom Smith

So here's a public disclosure of my newest product idea. If I understand patent law correctly, I have a year to file my patent application from about one minute from now.

I call it, the wearable, third-party verified, real time net worth indicator. It would be a little electronic badge thingy that you could wear on your lapel, as a medalion or whatever, that would indicate your net worth at that moment. It could do this by changing colors or displaying some prominent symbol, such as a big M when over 1 million USD. The analogy would be to military rank, only this would be a conspicuous display of your financial rank. It would be third party verified, for example, by a recognized accounting firm. We all know Rolex watches and Porsches are just signaling devices. Well, finally, a signaling device that actually is a signaling device! And, if properly designed, it could be much more reliable than a leased Porsche about to be repossessed. It would not have to be garish. People in bars could just look at it discretely the same way they look at your name tag at a conference. Think about it.
posted by thomas at 10/04/2004 08:20:00 PM

 
"Latin American solution"
By Tom Smith

Robb strikes me as a bit of a nut, but this is interesting.
posted by thomas at 10/04/2004 08:20:00 PM

 
Shark Tale agenda
By Tom Smith

Some readers thought I was nuts to suggest I, Robot held a subliminal message that whites were sub-human, robotic clones, but I take it we can all agree that Shark Tale is a thinly veiled parable about accepting gays. Which is fine. Who am I to say that cartoons about fish should not be used to propagandize about sexual politics. Lenny is a shark who will not kill anything and is unable and unwilling to take over his father's crime empire. The Godfather shark, whose name I forget, is played by Robert De Niro. Lenny runs away from home, dresses like a gay dolphin, paints himself and wears a strap to change the shape of his nose to complete the disguise. I will note all the explicitly sexual scenes (nothing beyond kissing, we see no milting or egg depositing) involve obviously male and female fish.

I enjoyed the movie. It is funny, full of wit, and has something like a plot. It is full of sappy sentiments that I could do without, but whatever. The critics are giving it very mixed reviews, but it's not that bad.

It does make one wonder, however, about what is appropriate in propagandizing children. Shark Tale is a Dreamworks production, one of the initialed partners of Dreamworks SKG being David Geffen, perhaps the richest gay man in America, and until his famous coming out at an AIDS benefit in 1992, a famously closeted gay. After a donation of 200 million to the UCLA school of medicine, it has been renamed the David Geffen School of Medicine. Strangely enough, Shark Tale, as the story of a closet vegetarian shark, could be a metaphor for the life of David Geffen, except that no one has ever suggested that there was anything remotely vegetarian about him. In an industry famous for sharks, he is a great white.

I'm not sure what I think about this movie. I think it is important to teach children not to be hateful toward gays, and as I have made clear before, I think hatred of gays is an evil prejudice. There's something creepy, however, about using children's entertainment for propaganda. I'm not even sure it's all that great for gays, since Lenny is portrayed as a rather swishy fish. It's also manipulative to present children with a character who not utterly clueless adults can see is intended to be gay, but which children will not see as such. (My kids were outraged at my suggestion that Lenny was gay.) As if to say, he's not gay, children, he's just a cuddly, cute shark with unusual tastes! So what if he wants to dress like a dolphin; he's still lovable, isn't he? Children are autonomous beings. They deserve not to be manipulated, even if it is relatively easy to do.
posted by thomas at 10/04/2004 06:59:00 PM

 
Vintage Randy Cohen
By Tom Smith

Stomach feel fine? OK, then you can read Randy Cohen. Wait at least an hour before eating.
posted by thomas at 10/04/2004 03:25:00 PM

 
Get to know Iran's nuclear program while you still can
By Tom Smith

Some background on our religious nutcase friends in Iran and how Israel feels about their getting nuclear weapons.

More.
posted by thomas at 10/04/2004 03:17:00 PM

 
"You need not ask for whom the video cell phone rings; it rings for you."
By Tom Smith

Must read from Belmont Club.
posted by thomas at 10/04/2004 01:44:00 PM

 
Don't fret, little Bushies
By Tom Smith

Yes, the polls show Kerry has closed the gap, and that's nothing to be thrilled about. But the polls are not very good indicators of who is going to win. We don't have very good indicators of who will win, but the best we have are futures markets, odd as that may seem. When Kerry gets within 3 or 4 points of Bush on the betting markets, then it will be time for the serious questions, like do I want the 3 month MRE variety value pack, or should I just choose singles that look like they might taste good after 6 months in the bush, waiting for the isotopes to decay. (Yes, I exagerate somewhat, but a Kerry victory would definitely increase my national security anxiety level.)

Trust me. I've looked at this. I'm too lazy to link to my sources, but it is just remarkable how good a job even completely play markets do processing information from polls and other sources respecting future events. Of course, this does not mean the market can predict the future. It just does a better job of doing so in light of currently available information. The markets obviously discount polling numbers in various ways. It's hard to say what the market is "thinking." It's important to understand the market is smarter, a lot smarter, than any of the individuals who trade in it, most of the time. So it is not just a matter of what the smart money is thinking. Having said that, it may be the market thinks the polls are inaccurate, that swing voters tend to be impressionable but change their minds easily, that Bush will do better in a Townhall format, that there's a good chance of an October terrorist surprize, who knows.

So, here's Bush on tradesports.com, which I like better than IEM because its graphics are better. It's now a 60-40 race for Bush, down from roughly 67-33. A big drop for Bush, reflecting his poor performance in the debate. But 60-40 is still a big spread. Not time to panic yet. Later, maybe. If any Kerry supporter will give you even odds on Kerry winning, take it! If somebody is mouthing off about how Kerry is going to win, ask them what he thinks Kerry's odds are of winning. If he says 70-30, ask him for a bet on those odds. You give 30 bucks to honest intermediary, he gives seventy, and the winner gets the pot. That's fair, isn't it? It's amazing how few people would dream of putting their money where their mouth is, in that cliched, but so very salutary phrase. It does have a way of shutting people up, and when it doesn't, you can make some dough.

I suspect the polls are biased, not necessarily in favor of the Dems, but in favor of being newsworthy. Newsweek's numbers seem awfully volatile to me. I didn't believe them when they said Bush was 14 points ahead or whatever it was, and I don't believe them now, with Kerry 2 points ahead (or whatever). Zogby just seems pro-Democratic. Gallup somewhat Republican, perhaps. Rassmussen seems to use bigger samples, which can't hoit. State polls strike me as potentially more useful. You can waste hours looking at this stuff on realclearpolitics.

posted by thomas at 10/04/2004 10:43:00 AM

 
Debka on French double dealing (I bet there's a French word for that)
By Tom Smith

Here's what Debka says happened to the two French journalist hostages:

On Thursday, September 30, an unforeseen occurrence laid bare a potential threat to this prognosis. A convoy of white Iraqi Nissen trucks, the favored vehicle for smugglers of people and illegal freight from Syria, was sighted northeast of Haditha heading along the Euphrates bank towards the Syrian border town of Abu Kamal, an al Qaeda-Baath depot for fighters infiltrating Iraq. US warplanes on constant patrol over the border region bombed the convoy, set some of the vehicles on fire and left six Iraqis dead.
Next day, Friday, October 1, Phillippe Evanno, aide to French parliamentarian Didier Julia, called an urgent news conference in Damascus with bad news; the convoy just bombed by the Americans was ferrying to Syria Georges Malbrunot and Christian Chesnot, the two French journalists taken hostage in Iraq on August 28. They had been freed, he explained, after being handed over by their abductors, the Islamic Army of Iraq, to another Iraqi guerrilla group.
DEBKAfile reports that in today’s Iraq such handovers are in fact cash sales, the money put up in this case most probably by the French government or some semi-official French organization. Evanno claimed there were two convoys; a French mediator Phillippe Brett drove in one and the two hostages were in the second. After the American bombardment, US troops surrounded the damaged vehicles. The passengers, including the two journalists fled and have not been heard of since.
Initially the French government and US military officials denied knowledge of this incident. However, on October 2, French foreign minister Michel Barnier criticized “unofficial negotiators” led by Julia for frustrating government efforts to gain the two hostages’ release.
The story behind this tale is revealed here by DEBKAfile’s counter-terror sources.
Immediately after Malbrunot and Chesnot were abducted, President Jacques Chirac launched an intense effort to secure their freedom. At the same time, he saw a chance not only of circumventing the US authorities in Baghdad, but torpedoing a potential Washington-Damascus rapprochement over joint military border action. To this end he took three steps:
1. He formed a special panel at the Elysee Palace of French intelligence officers and diplomatic advisers with good connections in Arab countries, such as the former UN secretary general Boutros Boutros-Ghali, who is well remembered in Washington for his contribution to the 1993 American military debacle in Somalia and the 1995 disruptions he staged in Bosnia with French intelligence.
A second panel went up in the French foreign ministry.
Both panels were mandated to explore every channel and connection for securing the two journalists’ release with the exception of American officials in Washington or Baghdad and circles identified with the Iyad Allawi government.
2. On August 31, Chirac flew to the Black Sea resort of Sochi to bid for help from Russian president Vladimir Putin and visiting German chancellor Gerhard Schroeder. He left empty-handed. Nonetheless, he never once appealed to the US president, or turned to American diplomats, military or intelligence for assistance.
3. The French government tried broadcasting an appeal for help throughout its extensive web of connections in Arab countries, Iran and the extremist Muslim world, including the Hizballah terrorist group. When this appeal failed to bring any response, Paris established a semi-official forward rescue command in Damascus hoping to reach the hostage-takers through Syrian military intelligence’s close links with the Baath guerrilla officers and al Qaeda operatives organizing the clandestine transfer of fighters and arms into Iraq.
This command was staffed by Didier Julia, Philippe Brett and Philippe Evanno.
They got as far as buying the release of the two Frenchmen with a hefty payout to a Baath guerrilla group fighting in Fallujah. According to our sources, the deal was a package that also covered running the men out to Syria through one of the guerrillas’ smuggling routes.
However, when the American air force put paid to the scheme by raiding the departing convoy on its way to Syria, Paris disowned the Damascus forward command and accused the “unofficial negotiators” of doing more harm than good.

Remember, Debka is at least as reliable as CBS.
posted by thomas at 10/03/2004 02:40:00 PM

 
More bad news from the cheery professor
By Tom Smith

I apologize to my loyal fans, but this gloomy view from Belmont Club strikes me as correct. Just because Kerry would be an utter disaster does not mean Bush is doing a good job.

Unlike many people with opinions in the academy, I do not hold myself out as an expert in Middle East politics. For one thing, I have a hard time keeping straight all the religious nutcases who want to kill us . But I will say that our military strategy in Iraq has neo-conservative pointy-headedness written all over it. I am very skeptical we are gaining anything of value by tip toeing up on the Islamofascists in Fullajah for instance. Now, apparently, Iran could be as little as four months away from actually having nuclear weapons. I would guess it is more than that, but pretty damn soon seems to be a fair bet.

Just for future reference, it is the responsibility of our brave leaders not to allow bizarro theo-thugocracies to get within a hundred days or so from having weapons they would have reason (using that term liberally) to give to co-religionist psychopaths who dream at night about turning our families into radioactive ash. It's part of that whole national security thing. That the radioactive mullahs have been allowed to get as far as they have in Iran is a terrible failure for the Bush administration. It is obscured by the fact that Kerry is still dithering about what the "intentions" of the Iranians are. I guess since there aren't Communists around any more about whose intentions he may dither, he thinks it's time to dither about the intentions of our new, and in their own way, even more revolting enemies. (I suppose who you think is more revolting depends on whether 19th century pseudo-science or medieval Oriental black fantasy is more the stuff of your nightmares. Both work for me.) Perhaps since the Iranians so promptly rejected Kerry and Silky Pony's really very thoughtful offer of fuel rods that could not be used for bombs, they will think again about whether Iran really does want every suicide bomber's fondest dream. But what am I saying. Of course they won't. It's not about reality. It's about making Kerry's dreams come true, so everybody will know he really is as important as he almost believes he is.

I don't blame Bush for getting mad. There he was, having to treat as serious a guy who is a walking advertizement for false consciousness. Kerry is a man who values his comforts, and who doesn't. I've never had a manicure, but windsurfing sounds fun. For what appears to be mainly reasons of insatiable ego, rooted perhaps in his odd poor-little-rich-boy childhood, he thinks he wants of the job of steering America through what are shaping up as very dark and dangerous times.

In a matter of months, there is every chance we will be at war with Iran, if only because the Israelis are not likely to sit back and let Iran get nukes, even if a President Kerry would dither until it is too late to stop them. There's something about suicide bombers that wakes you from your dogmatic slumbers. The Jew, as our Arab friends would say, understands that the Iranian mullahs (pronounced "mooooolahs") are as vicious a bunch as you could wish, hanging on to power by their none-too-clean fingernails, and that war is a favorite expedient by which fascists hang on to power. (Where have I heard this stuff about wiping out the Jews with weapons of the future before? Some people see gee whiz technology and think, oh boy! more leisure time! Others think, oh boy! what a great way to kill Jews! But I digress.) The mullahs may be evil, but they're not stupid. Asking whether the mullahs are after nukes is like asking whether Kerry got married for the money. For people who volunteered for the job of protecting this country, there is such a thing as a stupid question.

What Kerry doesn't realize is this is job for Teddy Roosevelt, and he is no TR. Bush is no TR either. He's not even a JR. He's just the best we've got. We just have to hope that's enough, and if it is, it won't be by much.

posted by thomas at 10/03/2004 09:31:00 AM