The Right Coast
October 29, 2004
Your eyeball on the betting markets
By Tom Smith
So here's the deal. Take a deck of cards. Throw out the jokers. Throw out the black one-eyed jacks. Shuffle thoroughly. Draw a card. If it's red, Bush wins. If it's black, well, hope terrorism isn't the threat it sure as hell looks like. And get ready for some very unpleasant gloating. It won't be Camelot. Sucksalot, more like it. But let's try not to be negative. Time in your remote wilderness location builds strong families, and MREs are really pretty tastey. OK, I'll try again. Clinton people tell me that the national security establishment does a really good job sobering up clueless presidents. Or, maybe the polls and markets are wrong. And there are a few days left. Maybe the polls do a better job of getting out the vote than the voters will.
To me, this looks likes things getting tighter in Ohio. I still don't believe W will get PA or MI. If he does, it means internal polls really are better. Now, Ohio has tightened up before in the wake of Kerry visits. Bizarre, I know. Then the effect seems to wear off. So maybe . . .
Dick Morris, that toe-sucking son of a gun, says it's W all the way, relying on fundamental analysis. Well, OK. We'll just have to wait and see. Zogby calls it for Kerry. Zogby has made some good calls in the past, but he's still a partisan, and past performance is not that good an indicator.
Moments like this really make you think monarchy has its advantages. Not-that-bonnie-Prince Charlie might be available. Or may be Ariana Huffington? She'd have to agree to change her philosophy, but she'd be game. Or how about Emperor Volokh? He's a reasonable guy. Sorry, Brian, you're disqualified. I know! Ah nold! Ah nold! He's been a ruler before. But that is another story.