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October 27, 2004
Diplomad gets it right By Tom Smith You really do get a different perspective living abroad. Dmad is right on about ferrin elites. He's also right it's going to be rather a disaster if Kerry wins. Ironic that history should throw up such a feather weight when we could really use a leader. I'm not saying Bush is Reagan, but like many ordinary guys at Omaha Beach, he figured out in a hurry what was necessary. Kerry strikes me as a strange man, driven by his ambitions to take on a job he is really not suited for. While I am worried, I still think Bush is the favorite. The way I see it, Bush has to win Florida and either Ohio or Wisconsin. He is likely to win Florida, and very likely to win either Ohio or Wisconsin. Multiply the probabilities together and you get roughly the scrotum-tightening 55 percent the markets give him (tradesports and IEM have converged on that). That's tighter than a few days ago, but still better than Kerry's 45 percent. Unfortunately, I do think some judicial falderal is likely, but probably not as bad as 2000's perfect political storm. Of course, these are all just subjective probabilities. New information could enter the market. We'll find out in a few days how effective our Homeland Security improvements have been. Unfortunately, I don't think some sort of low tech hostage massacre or the like is out of the question. I am not expecting germs or gamma rays, but who knows. Tea leaves are hard to read. Bush was in Lancaster, PA today. Why? I don't see how he can win PA, but maybe the internal Bush polls show something different. OTH, Kerry was in Iowa today. Same question. Recent polls from Zogby show Iowa and Michigan tied, and Kerry slightly ahead in Ohio and Wisconsin. If Kerry wins both Ohio and Wisconsin, Bush is done, but I think that's a one-in-four shot for John John at best. I also don't believe Kerry is going to win Iowa, though I grant that's a better shot than PA for Bush. Maybe PA is a Rove feint. I also think MI is solid Kerry, whatever the polls say. Last minute mudball from the Dems? Completely possible, but if they have something, they've done a good job keeping it secret. Bush love-child, aborted lovechild, some Iraq nastiness, anything's possible. Risky business for the Kerrygators, however, and they may not want to try it. Also, Ms. Cahill seems to be a little bit less of a total scumbag than the Arkansas crowd. But maybe not. So, the election promises to be horribly exciting. |