The Right Coast

October 13, 2004
more tradesports
By Tom Smith

Bush is getting hammered again on tradesports, but I'm not sure it means anything. He took a five point drop after the first debate, then bounced back within two days. These markets are small enough to be manipulated, and maybe they are being. I can't tell how the volume is measured, but it looks like it could be as little at 22,000 USD or so for today, which ain't much.

On the debate, I don't have much to say. Fox heads seem to think Bush did well. He always reminds me of a student who knows the right answer, but has an agonizing time of getting it out. Kerry was whiny and dour, but as an academic, I am used to that. It's sort of soothingly familiar. It struck me that he was pretty loose with his facts. But who's counting. I will be interested to see if the polls are as far off as they were in Australia. I doubt they will be. In 2000, they were alarmingly accurate, especially the evil Zogby. OTOH both Reps and Dems are supposedly involved in all kinds of newfangled voter registration and get out the vote activities. In legal circles, this is called vote fraud. Democrats traditionally attempt to extend the franchise to dead people and non-existent people. Republicans try to stop this for racial reasons because these voters were minorities when they were alive, or would be minorities, if they actually existed.