Thoughts from
San Diego on Law, Politics, and Culture

 
Market reacts to debate
By Tom Smith

I thought Bush did a pretty good job, but the tradesports.com futures market moved markedly against Bush over the course of the debate. Bush is down a full five points, and Kerry up, over the past 2 hours or so. That's dramatic. That's what markets do when they think they have new information. What was it? I don't know, but if I had to guess, I would say Bush came on too strong on the 'culture of life' stuff. Personally, I loved it. My favorite person in the debate was the person of blondeness who asked Kerry in the second to last question what he would do to reassure a person who didn't want their tax dollars spent on abortions. I thought Kerry's answer was lame and Bush was strong. But what plays in the country is another question. Bush's Iowa futures were down especially. Maybe Iowa is socially liberal? Bush also lost ground in his Florida futures. Maybe all those conflicted Jewish persons in south Florida who like Bush on Israel but not on abortion. Hard to say. Anyway, I think the race just tightened considerably because Bush came over as a conservative, and Kerry, opportunist that he is, came over as moderate. Total hooey, of course, but how do you keep fools from voting?

I also thought the questions were biased against Bush. What did you expect? What three things do you regret? What kind of question is that? Notice Kerry took it as, things Bush should regret. But that's another story. Sorry, kids, time to start worrying.

Hmmmm. The spread's already closed to four, and there are some big contracts being traded. Might be wise to see how it settles down in the morning.
posted by thomas at 10/08/2004 08:23:00 PM