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October 27, 2004
More electoral college analysis By Tom Smith Real smart analysis over at RCP on the electoral college permutations. Read it, but bear some things in mind. Bush is not going to win PA, unless the markets are way off. It's possible Rove has some super-secret inside polls, which would explain why POTUS was in PA today, but I doubt it. He also isn't going to win Michigan. But he probably will win at least one of Ohio and Wisconsin, probably will win Iowa and probably will win Florida. New Mexico? Well, he may win the vote, but the count will go to Kerry, or I'm a dad burned fool. New Mexico is like Texas without the law and order, or the wealth. If Bush loses Florida, that tells me the markets were wrong, Dem GOTV was working, blacks are turning out in large numbers for Kerry, and it's hard to see why Bush wouldn't lose Ohio, Wisconsin and Iowa as well. Kerry near landslide. But we have no reason to believe that will happen, except Dem chestpounding (or whatever the PC equivalent of chest pounding). I think it's possible Bush could win in theory by picking up NM and NH, if he won Florida and lost all the midwest. But I don't see him winning NM, or losing all the midwest either. |