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Thoughts from San Diego on Law, Politics, and Culture
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November 30, 2004
Law schools get permission to take courageous stand By Tom Smith The Third Circuit has apparently ruled that the Solomon Amendment is unconstitutional. That was the law that told law schools that if they would not allow military recruiters on campus, as a protest against the "don't ask, don't tell" policy on gay soldiers, they could do without federal money as well. Just to review, soldiers are the ones that do things like get their legs blown off by grenades so the rest of us can decide what the best kind of wine is with turkey, and law schools are the places where idealistic solons take brave stands right up until the moment they are threatened with losing some money if they do so. It would be interesting to know by how much one would have to reduce federal largess to get law schools to reluctantly agree that they must courageously decide to postpone their brave protests to a more opportune time. Completely eliminating federal largess always struck me as extreme, when you could probably have gotten schools to about face for much less. Would an amendment that said law schools would be docked, oh, $367,235.21 from their federal subsidies if they did not permit military recruiters on campus, cause the law school administrations to see that discretion was the better part of valor? Or, perhaps a better way to calculate it would be $5000 for each soldiers' limb or eye lost in Iraq, and $10,000 for each soldier's life, but maybe $20,000 per soldier who had the misfortune to be burned alive inside a tank. Oh, except, that would run into the millions. Would anyone dare ask a law school to make so costly a sacrifice upon the altar of freedom? Decline of Culture continues By Tom Smith More evidence that Hollywood people need brain therapy. What they name their kids. November 25, 2004
I hope it wasn't something I said By Tom Smith This post indicates somebody threw up in my M and A class the other day. I did not notice that. I hope it was just a virus and not one of my jokes, which do not always come off well. Bush the Guy ByTom Smith Of course Bush did the right thing. If the Chileans feel humiliated, they have only themselves to blame. There are about a dozen reasons why POTUS should not allow foreign security to separate him from his own security detail. First, security reasons. In my year in "the White House," which includes the Old Executive Office Building (now called the Reagan building, or something) where I worked (as opposed to the "West Wing," where the upper White House Staff worked, or White House Scum as I sometimes refered to them, since I thought most of them were political hacks, as opposed to the economic or national security professionals on the 3rd floor of the OEOB), security around the President himself was really, really tight. This was obviously before 9/11. You had to go through two or three screenings, with both metal dectectors and ID check (against a database with lots of info about who you were) to get anywhere near him. The agents themselves were very imposing physical specimens, all over 6 feet, very fit, and very vigilant. The idea that some foreign security heavies would interpose themselves between the President's personal detail and the President is very shocking. If you tried this in the US, you'd be lucky to come out of it alive. This incident has its lighter side, but in fact, it's fortunate it did not lead to something much worse. If the President had not come back as soon as he did, the Secret Service would have started getting much rougher and who knows what would have happened. Ukraine By Tom Smith Here's a blog from Ukraine. (Don't say "the Ukraine;" that makes it sound like just a region in greater Russia.) Apparently it's not just a fight over electoral corruption, but between democrats and the oligarchs who took over after the fall of the USSR. November 24, 2004
Family life update By Tom Smith I think everybody is suffering from a post-election let down. Enough politics for a while. So let's talk about my one-year old, Mark. He has graduated from rug rat to explorer dude, unsteadily walking everywhere. I captured some of his first steps on the video camera, but it all happens very fast. He has discovered the out of doors, and loves to locomote under the pine trees. He has not quite figured out leaning back into a slope, and just keeps himself perpendicular to the ground until he slowly topples forward. My theory is to go ahead and let him tumble, as long as the ground is soft, and maybe he'll learn faster that way the way to walk on uneven ground. It's more like life that way. Of course, walking off a cliff and dying is like life too; you don't want to overdo that sort of thing. He found a patch of flowers gone wild, combined with miscellaneous weeds and went to work patting them all down, putting his face into them, putting little bits into his mouth. At a moment like this, I couldn't help but think of all the potentially vicious little creatures that might be infesting that patch of ground. Fire ants. Scorpions. Black widows. Velvet ants. Brown recluse spiders. Rattlesnakes. No. Wrong season for snakes. If was the sort of person who thought, a little boy, exploring flowers for the first time, life is so wonderful, maybe I would have voted for Kerry. Our poor neglected labradors were thrilled to be out on the property as well. Denali, who looks like a minaturized brown steer with floppy ears, ran back and forth, chasing a well chewed plastic Halloween pumpkin. As the poster boy for the tragedy of cannine obesity, he could drop dead at any moment, but in the meantime, let him run. Biscuit is getting a few gray hairs around her muzzle, but still catches balls like a fielder, proof that it's all in the genes. It was one of those gorgeous, perfect San Diego days in November, that almost make you feel guilty for living here. But, given the season, I suppose gratitude would be the more appropriate emotion. There weren't any stinging or biting insects in the batch of flowers, or at least they were beaten down by the preemptive war we have waged against them. Thanks to the Marines and the Navy and the Army and the rest, I get to sit here and look at the twinkly lights of Chula Vista on the horizon, and wonder whether I should have a scotch before I open the merlot. I think we have decided to forgo creationism and knife fighting at the Christian martial arts academcy tonight, and pop a movie in the VCR instead. It's vacation, there's a Republican in the White House, and all boys have made it through the day with no major injuries or other catastrophe. Of course I'm grateful. UN is just what you suspect By Tom Smith Does anyone else remember growing up thinking the UN was this cool, sleek place where men in J. Press suits and attractive women of many different nationalites did important things to save the world? Napoleon Solo was a UN functionary, after all. So sad it's all a crock. Diplomad is right. Dear ROR, I'm so sorry By Tom Smith Just kidding! I'm not sorry at all! But if you are, you can go here and post an apology to the world for W's reelection. If you're not sorry, you can use the site for some private gloating. But don't do it at work. That might be illegal or at least against your firm's policy. There are some genuinely eeeewwww folks, who may remind you why you became a Republican. Or at least didn't vote for Kerry. I wonder if Kerry feels relieved. Maybe we are all better off. November 19, 2004
Powell the hawk By Tom Smith Powell is sounding the alarm bell on Iran. We should listen to him. Alternatively, we could enter a treaty with Iran, brokered peut-etre by la belle France, to the effect that Iran can go ahead and develop nukes and delivery systems, but they have to promise to keep it secret. And we have to promise that if Tel-Aviv or Pittsburgh suddenly turns into a big lake of molten glass, we will look everywhere, except Iran, to figure out where the bomb came from. November 17, 2004
The Middle East after Herr Arafat By Tom Smith Now that Arafat is chatting with Goebbles inbetween sessions on the grill, we may ask, what next for Middle East? Diplomad, as usual, has some astute observations. Which reminds me, as there is an old Europe and a new Europe, isn't there also an old America and a new America. The old America is the blue counties on the coasts, and the new America is the rest, which was settled later and is still growing fastest. So you'd like to help kill a terrorist . . . By Tom Smith Is it tax deductible? I'm not sure, but where else can you buy a gun or a knife for our boys on the pointy end? Via instapundit. November 16, 2004
Nanny state redux By Tom Smith So now after you've spent 8 hours squatting down pit, hewing out coal with sweat and sinew, you can't have a fag with your pint because it's bad for you. What rot. Why not just let pubs designate themselves as smoking or non-smoking, or smoking only in the smoking area, or whatever. You just don't need a universal no-smoking policy in pubs. According to the story, The aim, according to the government, is to reverse a trend toward an increasingly unhealthy society in which people take too little exercise, eat too much fattening food, engage in unprotected casual sex and smoke. And what else are you supposed to do to while away your life on that rainy isle? In the nation where you could spend your whole life and never encounter the state except at the post office, it is now going to tell you fish and chips and a Woodbines are bad for you, and instead of a pint, you need to go to jazzercize. Poor Britannia. Powell's mixed record By Tom Smith IMHO W is well rid of him. He's not a wartime SOS. Diplomad is interesting on this. Home ownership hell By Tom Smith There is some deep lesson in all this, I just don't know what it is. A couple of weeks ago I heard a strange dripping noise in the family room. Investigation revealed my water heater was emitting water, which travelled along some pipes and into a little interior space under the furnace. Well, I thought, with utter naivite, I'm going to have to get in there with a mop and clean it up. Silly me. Instead, plumbers had to come and remove the furnace and the water heater, take apart the little structure on which they sat, erect fans for a week or so, tear out carpet padding, put in a new hot water heater, put back the furnace, and oh yes, somewhere in there dry up all that water. Four large at least. At least. But it's covered by insurance, right? Oh, you would have to ask. In fact, it might be covered, and it might not be, but now, having already made my claim, I read that insurance companies in CA are cancelling people at record rates for having the temerity to make water damage claims. Because of the burgeoning mold claim phenomenon. OTH in 2003 only 1200 policies were cancelled in this reason in CA, so maybe I will be fine. Whether that counts non-renewals, I don't know. My lovely wife Jeanne is telling me to chill, and I should. If I could take back the claim, I would. At least after 2 weeks of no hot water, I can stop bathing in the ice cold pool. Invigorating, but conducive to grumpiness. Things got so bad, I actually had to go to a Home Depot. Which led me to compose the following somewhat blasphemous prayer: O Home Depot Clerk, I do most humbly prostrate myself before thee and beg thee, in thy mercy, to vouchsafe to me where the water softener units are to be sought. Not the little units to which I have been directed twice, but, lo, the large units, such as one finds next to water heater, in mine garage. Then, in thy wisdom, if thou wouldst get such great thing down from its high perch, great would be my praises of thee, O Great Clerk! And so on. Fortunately, the Scots have invented a useful tonic. November 14, 2004
November 13, 2004
CIA hubris By Tom Smith The CIA seems to be a problem. It does have a history of being anti-GOP, but why it would invest so heavily in defeating Bush is unclear to me. They certainly have a tradition of being WASP, Yalie, and perhaps even just ever so slightly anti-Hebraic. If you want a snootful of CIA Yalie snobbery, you can read this book until you heave. It begins with a long and dead serious discussion of exactly where a professor at Yale ranks on the social ladder. But that is history. This book is a much more contemporary look at the CIA, and quite accurate seeming, based on my tangential dealings with the Firm. Not to be too subtle about it, it seems to me the CIA isn't that different from Arab Studies departments at universities. It hard to study and understand something and loathe it at the same time. Few experts on the Soviet Union saw it as an evil empire. My guess is the CIA sorts essentially agree with the European critique of US policy in the Middle East. We're too pro-Israel, and we do too many things to offend the Arabs and their various sensitivities, which oddly enough, do not extend to blowing children into little hunks of meat. Yes, intelligence reform seems an opportunity to get the CIA on board in the war against terror. But how do you do that without crippling our intelligence capabilities, such as they are, during the transition? I don't know. Cheney should resign By Tom Smith Maybe not right this minute, but pretty soon, Dick Cheney should resign and Bush should nominate a VP who would be a live prospect in 2008. This is not the way Bushes think, of course, but there's no harm wishing. Cheney is a good man, even if he does have ice water for blood and a metaphorical metal pump for a heart. Even his admirers think he is a scary guy. But you can't have a guy a heartbeat away when his own heartbeat is not that reliable. If somebody told him W had been shot dead, he'd probably have a heart attack and die. Then who would be President? Hasert? It just won't do. So who should be VP? I like Condie Rice. It would be amusing to watch the Democrats explain that appearances notwithstanding, she was in fact both white and male. But Bushes are loyal to a fault, part of the fault being that family comes before party or national political future. Ask Dan Quayle. November 12, 2004
November 11, 2004
Off to that great compound in the sky By Tom Smith Arafat is in a better place, and so are we. Well, he may not be in a better place, but at least we are. via Instapundito. November 10, 2004
Scramjet. Cool. By Tom Smith New hypersonic jet to be tested by NASA. Of course, there may be other very fast jets in the air already we don't know about. There were some difficult to explain sonic booms here in San Diego a few years back . . . November 08, 2004
Liberal Paranoia By Tom Smith If you think about it, American liberals today resemble Puritans, of the Cromwellian stripe. They seem to be unable to tolerate the idea that in large swaths of America, evangelical Christians are out there, doing the things they do. Reading the bible and taking it literally is a kind of intellectual sodomy, that simply cannot be suffered to exist. Here is Brad DeLong, not getting it. Do you see what is wrong with his picture? He quotes with horror the story of a bunch of evangelicals, on a trip down the Grand Canyon. They look at geology and see creation. They make fun of Carl Sagan and imagine him roasting in hell fire. They listen to a preacher about the bible. But here's the thing. It's a private trip, isn't it? A bunch of co-religionists go out to the wilds. Where is the problem, exactly? Are they thinking unlicensed thoughts? Is the Grand Canyon a violation of the Establishment Clause? The Clean Air Act, perhaps, because such people are allowed to breathe? Brad DeLong seems unable to bear the idea that not everybody thinks he is as smart as he thinks he is. He wrings his hands and exclaims "the intolerance! I just can't stand it!" Liberals give themselves way too much credit. If they knew more evangelicals of the strict, biblical sort, they would appreciate what an embattled minority they are. Yes, they played an influential role in the last election, but I am talking about the lives they actually lead. Blacks are sometimes important in elections, but that does not mean a lot of them do not have tough lives. Strict Christians have to put up with the contempt of main stream culture, villification in the media, and policies in public institutions that border on official persecution. Most of them do not have a lot of money and can't send their kids to the private schools their betters send their kids to, so they won't have to suffer the consequences of liberal educational theories in practice. And all this while listening to the elites congratulate themselves for being so tolerant and superior. In the meantime, without the Catholics in the police and fire departments, and the born-agains in the Marines, they'd be asking some guy in a bathrobe to tell them again which way Mecca was. Jui-jitsu video By Tom Smith A student of mine who's into Brazilian jui-jitsu sent me this cool link to a a video of two of the Gracies sparring, showing their techniques. They are so good, they make it look smooth, clean and easy. More on exit polls By Tom Smith Pollster Frank Luntz said on the Dennis Praeger show this morning that when he first saw the exit polls, he thought Kerry had won it. This from a guy who called Ohio for W the morning of Nov. 2 based on polling. Luntz also said that Karl Rove told him that when he first got the exit poll numbers he was "sick to his stomach" and only figured out they were wrong when he looked at the internals. If the exit polls fooled savy professionals such as these, it's no big surprize that they fooled the betting market. It seems pretty clear that the exit polls were more wrong than anyone had reason to expect they would be. The market figured it out when real numbers started out of Florida, however. Luntz said he thought the exit polls were not biased, just incomptetent. He said they relied too much on phone polling of people who claimed to have voted, but did not. He said Americans traditionally underestimate their age and weight, and overestimate the frequency with which they vote and have sex. Red and blue America By Tom Smith We are the red cube in the southwest most corner. Via Diplomad, who has interesting posts about how they're taking W's re-electo-selection in the Far Abroad. November 06, 2004
Final word on tradesports By Tom Smith Yes, tradesports and the other bookies had W down at around 30 percent for most of election day. Does this suggest markets aren't so efficient or rational after all, or at least betting markets? Not really. The betting markets were reacting to the exit polls, just like everyone else was. The exit polls were way off, further off, I strongly suspect, than anyone had reason to think they would be. Why were they so far off? Both Dems and the GOP made a huge effort to get out the vote, including getting out many new voters. The GOP effort in particular relied on an extraordinary, risky, and unprecedented effort to use informal networks of contacts to get out the rural vote. Republicans called friends, relatives and associates and reminded them to get out the vote. In my republican part of San Diego county, "Be sure to vote!" became the temporary replacement of "Have a nice day!" Exit pollers have to make assumptions about turnout to allocate their boots on the ground. They apparently allocated their interviewers, rationally enough, in some way that did not anticipate the big increase in rural voters. Thus they oversampled suburban and urban voters, catching the big Dem turnout, but not the even bigger GOP turnout. The market isn't magic. It only works with the information it has. It looked for a while like a Democratic rout because the information wasn't available that across Red Amuricah, pappy had fired up the truck and taken all the kin into vote. If exit pollers had more samplers in rural areas, or if we had a media that actually reported the news, we and the market would have been spared a panic. When did the market fix itself? As soon as real numbers started coming in in Florida. When the real numbers started coming in, tradesports showed Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Nevada and New Mexico going to W well before the networks called any of them. Good information drove out bad. So, I think the betting markets did fine this election day. I think what the selling off of W contracts before the polls closed showed was simply that the turnout the GOP organized across the country was an utter surprize to all but a few GOP insiders, such as Herr Professor Rove. I have been told that the Realclearpolitics moving average of state polls called every single state correctly, perhaps because aggregating poll numbers has the effect of increasing sample size. Also, if you select randomly from a database that includes rural voters, laws of probability should assure they get adequately represented in your sample. So the likely voter screens ended up working well enough so that exit pollers had no particular advantage just because they were talking to real voters. The fact that the polls did as well as they did does not mean anybody knew there would be such a big rural turn out. Moreover, polls must have been using some likely voter screen beyond, "did you vote in the last election" to do as well as they did. BTW the only pollster I know who foresaw the Dem's problem was Pat Cadell, the rotund, very sad looking fellow seen rarely these days on TV. He said months ago he was getting numbers like 80 percent opposed to gay marriage, even in traditionally Democratic rural areas. He said the Dems were in deep trouble if they stuck to that issue, and it looks like he was right. Busy times By Tom Smith Some fans may wonder why I have been silent since the election. Well, these are very busy times. I'm one of the many volunteers gathering snakes for the great snake-handle-athon we Bush voters are having to celebrate W's election. Thousands of snakes will be necessary, not to mention the Bibles, which need to be thumped upon while we handle the snakes. And not just any snakes, but large, venomous monsters are very much preferred, for their spiritual benefits. Emergency physicians also need to be recruits for those Democrats who crash the party and try to handle snakes, even though they are impure. Put that together with the hundreds of barrels of moonshine that have to be distilled, and well, I'm so busy I don't know whether to sh$% or go blind. The location isn't final yet, but somewhere around here, probably. This guy's going to provide some of the entertainment. Those darn terrorists By Tom Smith Marines discover Iraqi youth center rigged to blow up and kill the kids. Trigger was in the local mosque. You can't make this stuff up. November 03, 2004
Tradesports Revisited By Gail Heriot Tom, your statement that “[a]fter a panic brought on by the leaked exit polls, tradesports settled down and became a valuable guide for the night” is kinder than I would have been. I don’t usually find myself in the position of pooh-poohing markets, but tradesports didn’t exactly cover itself in glory yesterday. From about 11:00 a.m. to about 5:00 p.m., it showed Kerry as the 2 to 1 and sometimes nearly 3 to 1 favorite. If Dan Rather had been calling Kerry the 2 to 1 favorite all afternoon on CBS, we’d be calling him an idiot now. I therefore think it’s fair to say that at least from 11:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m., the market in presidential politics was an ass and an idiot too; participants gave far too much credence to early exit poll results that were really no different from the early exit poll results back in 2000. They goofed. It may be that these markets are usually pretty accurate, but you sure can’t prove it by yesterday. November 02, 2004
That's what I'm talking about By Tom Smith Well, it looks like a win for W and a good thing too. It came down to FL and OH, as I said it would, just following the betting lines. After a panic brought on by the leaked exit polls, tradesports settled down and became a valuable guide for the night. I found it consistently ahead of the networks. (The best of which was Fox, largely because of the amazing Michael Barone. He actually knows the layout of key counties in Ohio. How sick is that? ) Except for the panic, the lines did a good job revealing that PA was never really in play, and that MI and MN were long shots for W at best. They also foretold W's apparent victory in NM. NOW it looks like Iowa might go W. It also looks like it might end up in the automatic recount range. Very close. Nevada and NM look pretty safe. The Perfect Manhattan By Tom Smith KLJ, over at the Corner, allows as she does not know how to make a Manhattan. An appalling admission, but OK. Better late than never. My father in law, who took the train from New Canaan to Grand Central for 40 years and worked his way from the mail room to the very top of a giant advertising firm, had at least one Manhattan every day of his life and still does. My courtship of his cute daughter prospered in the golden glow of many such. Anyway . . . The perfect Manhattan Take a crystal old-fashioned glass. Bestow unto it two large jiggers of the best Canadian whiskey you can find. Chivas does nicely. Now add the sweet vermouth. And do this very carefully. How much? I suggest taking the cap of the Martini & Ross sweet vermouth bottle, and filling it approximately 65% full. Not more. Then add that to the Chivas. Now, and this is key, add a 3/4 cap full of pure spring water. NYC water is fine. Other places, use bottled water. (The water "opens up" the rye.) Now stir briefly. Then add ice. Crushed ice is good. Cubes are OK. Stir. Stir a lot. Stir at least 100 times, until the outside of your crystal Manhattan glass starts to dew up. Finally, add a sliver of orange rind. Now say, thank you, Jesus. Because a perfect Manhattan is one of many evidences that God is good. So that, my dear, is a Manhattan. A rye martini. A bullet directed at that spot in your forebrain that does nothing but make you unhappy just now. You are permitted to say, yum yum. MORE . . . Cherry juice?! Do not add cherry juice! My G-d, it's a martini, not a Shirley Temple! It is the drink of sophisticated Manhattanites, not some maiden Tennessee auntie's tipple! KJL, tell me you will not sully your libation with cherry juice. That would be like putting licorice into a gin martini. By all that is holy! And making Manhattans in a jar? Why not make them out in the shed, while your at it, if you can bet Old Rusty to clear out? If you put in cherries, it will be too sweet. You don't like things to be too sweet do you? Sweet is for babies, not tough, old Republicans. This is too upsetting. I need a drink. HOW EMBARASSING: I meant to say Crown Royal not Chivas. Yes, Chivas is a scotch, not a Canadian whiskey. Just use a good Canadian whiskey. A fellow former MacKinnon clerk tells me that a "Perfect Manhattan" is made with dry vermouth and bitters. But I meant perfect with a lower case P. I've never had a Perfect Manhattan, actually, but I don't like bitters. A regular Manhattan is a relatively sweet martini, yummy rather than bracing. Yes, I like plain old gin martinis too. As to watering the whiskey, well, I'm talking about a teaspoon of water, an innovation introduced by my father-in-law, who noticed the taste improved after the ice melted a little. Please note that my recipe calls for two large jiggers, roughly a triple sized drink. If you put away a couple of these, you need not prove your manhood in any other way. And you will feel much more favorably disposed to all mankind. Don't Panic By Tom Smith It could be we are looking at a classic market panic among the betting crowd. The exit poll numbers do not look good, but they did not look good in 2000 either. Given the closeness of the race, they only have to be off by 2 or 3 percent to turn a winner into a loser. The guys on the Corner suggest it may be that women are being over-sampled. Seems plausible, since moms are the ones you are more likely to run into by the time most reporters and pollsters get up. Working men and women are more likely to vote before or after work. I recall that exit polling methodology has been written off as useless before. Would the MSM play up bad exit poll numbers just to discourage Bush voters?! Haaaa! So, you can fairly say, without being Pollyanna-ish about it, that exit poll results are consistent with (1) Kerry kicking Bush's butt in both FL and OH and winning the White House, in which case I am glad I didn't buy those dinars, and also (2) a very close race in both places. Kerry landslide? By Tom Smith I hope tradesports is wrong. In response apparently to early exit polls, Bush contracts have fallen like a stone. Bush lines in some states, Iowa, Minnesota, for example, have effectively stopped trading, with no orders on the buy side. If this were a specialist market, like the NYSE, those contracts would be in free fall. This could be a panic, but it does not seem to be manipulation. If it is, it is very well coordinated. So, tradesports, as of now, is calling the election for Kerry by an electoral vote landslide. Exit poll data has been wrong before, but bettors should know that. It may be they are seeing the data as indicating that new Democratic voters are out in force, that polls undercounted them, and so on. It's possible the market will come back as fast as it sunk. It's not just tradesports, BTW. Other off shore bookies are reacting in a similar vein. Should I Really Trust Tradesports? By Gail Heriot Tradesports.com has Bush as the clear favorite (57.0). But I wonder if I should trust it. This is a market that attracts hedgers, particularly at this late date. There are lots of folks out there who have bet on Bush even though they plan to vote for Kerry and believe that Kerry will win, just as there are many who bet on Kerry despite the fact that they voted for Bush and anticipate that Bush will be re-elected. It's just they fear that if they are wrong, it will spell disaster for them and their country, so they want to have a hedge. I guess I'll have my answer soon enough. Spy on your neighbors By Tom Smith This is scary. Find out to whom your neighbors made political contributions, and in many cases their jobs. I have a neighbor who is a supervising agent in the Department of Homeland Security (and gave to the RNC, of course) and some professors (take a wild guess). And before Kerry, Dean. Thank you for not voting By Tom Smith As I sat in my new Starbucks lair yesterday, I overheard the following conversation. Dudette 1: So, like, are you voting for Kerry?! Dudette 2: No, duh! Dudette 1: Then why do you like have a Kerry sign in your car?! Dudette 2: It says "Don't buy the lies" and Kerry is crossed out! Dudette 1: Oh. There was a certain amount of lap sitting going on with boys, who did not speak, perhaps because they found words difficult, or perhaps because, with the knit caps pulled down over their eyes, they were disoriented. Now, these were apparently Bush voters, but my point is non-partisan. Lots of people who can vote, should not. It might be a good idea to bring back some sort of exam you have to pass to vote. The questions need not be difficult. For example: Something important happened in the United States between 1861 and 1865. What was it? a. Dude. b. It was, like, I mean, it was so totally, like, cute! c. Death to America! d. (chew; spit) Yep. e. World War II f. Vietnam g. the Civil War, you idiot Many people would be disqualified by this question, and that would be a good thing. If you are reading this blog, you are probably not one of these people. If by chance you are, however, please don't vote. Just go back to bed, turn on the TV, and don't worry. Everything will be fine. November 01, 2004
Yet still more electoral college madness once again By Tom Smith And so the fateful day approaches. Bush is still the fav, but now it looks like he must win Florida and Ohio and Iowa. Wisconsin looks unlikely. There never was much chance of PA, Michigan or Minnesota. But I take it back about New Mexico. I put more faith in the odds markets than in my impressions of utter corruption from 2000. The bookies make NM solid Bush now. The 55/45 overall split by the bookies strikes me as correct. It does look like turnout will be high. While Dick Morris is watching to see if votes are coming in ahead or behind of 2000, I'm going to be watching the bookies' lines Tuesday night -- assuming they're still open. I hope they trade until the Kerry shares reach zero (or G-d forbid, 100). If they stay open, they maybe become markets on litigation prospects. Another very useful function. If Kerry does pull ahead, I wonder if the MSM will show the celebrations on the Arab street, like there were after 9/11? Dumb question. Of course not. If they show up on the web, however, we'll post them. |
