The Right Coast

November 02, 2004
Kerry landslide?
By Tom Smith

I hope tradesports is wrong. In response apparently to early exit polls, Bush contracts have fallen like a stone. Bush lines in some states, Iowa, Minnesota, for example, have effectively stopped trading, with no orders on the buy side. If this were a specialist market, like the NYSE, those contracts would be in free fall. This could be a panic, but it does not seem to be manipulation. If it is, it is very well coordinated. So, tradesports, as of now, is calling the election for Kerry by an electoral vote landslide.

Exit poll data has been wrong before, but bettors should know that. It may be they are seeing the data as indicating that new Democratic voters are out in force, that polls undercounted them, and so on.

It's possible the market will come back as fast as it sunk. It's not just tradesports, BTW. Other off shore bookies are reacting in a similar vein.