The Right Coast
November 02, 2004
Should I Really Trust Tradesports?
By Gail Heriot
Tradesports.com has Bush as the clear favorite (57.0). But I wonder if I should trust it. This is a market that attracts hedgers, particularly at this late date. There are lots of folks out there who have bet on Bush even though they plan to vote for Kerry and believe that Kerry will win, just as there are many who bet on Kerry despite the fact that they voted for Bush and anticipate that Bush will be re-elected. It's just they fear that if they are wrong, it will spell disaster for them and their country, so they want to have a hedge. I guess I'll have my answer soon enough.