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November 02, 2004
Don't Panic By Tom Smith It could be we are looking at a classic market panic among the betting crowd. The exit poll numbers do not look good, but they did not look good in 2000 either. Given the closeness of the race, they only have to be off by 2 or 3 percent to turn a winner into a loser. The guys on the Corner suggest it may be that women are being over-sampled. Seems plausible, since moms are the ones you are more likely to run into by the time most reporters and pollsters get up. Working men and women are more likely to vote before or after work. I recall that exit polling methodology has been written off as useless before. Would the MSM play up bad exit poll numbers just to discourage Bush voters?! Haaaa! So, you can fairly say, without being Pollyanna-ish about it, that exit poll results are consistent with (1) Kerry kicking Bush's butt in both FL and OH and winning the White House, in which case I am glad I didn't buy those dinars, and also (2) a very close race in both places. |