The Right Coast
November 01, 2004
Yet still more electoral college madness once again
By Tom Smith
And so the fateful day approaches. Bush is still the fav, but now it looks like he must win Florida and Ohio and Iowa. Wisconsin looks unlikely. There never was much chance of PA, Michigan or Minnesota. But I take it back about New Mexico. I put more faith in the odds markets than in my impressions of utter corruption from 2000. The bookies make NM solid Bush now. The 55/45 overall split by the bookies strikes me as correct. It does look like turnout will be high.
While Dick Morris is watching to see if votes are coming in ahead or behind of 2000, I'm going to be watching the bookies' lines Tuesday night -- assuming they're still open. I hope they trade until the Kerry shares reach zero (or G-d forbid, 100). If they stay open, they maybe become markets on litigation prospects. Another very useful function.
If Kerry does pull ahead, I wonder if the MSM will show the celebrations on the Arab street, like there were after 9/11? Dumb question. Of course not. If they show up on the web, however, we'll post them.