The Right Coast

November 08, 2004
More on exit polls
By Tom Smith

Pollster Frank Luntz said on the Dennis Praeger show this morning that when he first saw the exit polls, he thought Kerry had won it. This from a guy who called Ohio for W the morning of Nov. 2 based on polling. Luntz also said that Karl Rove told him that when he first got the exit poll numbers he was "sick to his stomach" and only figured out they were wrong when he looked at the internals. If the exit polls fooled savy professionals such as these, it's no big surprize that they fooled the betting market. It seems pretty clear that the exit polls were more wrong than anyone had reason to expect they would be. The market figured it out when real numbers started out of Florida, however.

Luntz said he thought the exit polls were not biased, just incomptetent. He said they relied too much on phone polling of people who claimed to have voted, but did not. He said Americans traditionally underestimate their age and weight, and overestimate the frequency with which they vote and have sex.