The Right Coast

October 07, 2003
 
Mystery of Divorce and Daughters Solved!
By Tom Smith

My colleage Shaun Martin makes a very insightful point:

I don't know [Shaun writes] whether anyone else has made the connection, but here's my take on the subject. The problem with the existing theories (the ones that didn't persuade you on slate.com) is that they conflate causation and correlation. It's not that baby girls tend to cause divorce more than baby boys; rather, it is that the things that tend to cause baby girls also tend to cause divorce.

Absurd, you say? What could possibly cause both baby girls and divorce? It seems that the answer is simple: Stress. At least (for the former point) according to the latest -- fairly large -- study of births in Germany from 1946 to 1999 http://www.berkeley.edu/news/media/releases/2003/09/16_stress.shtml

It is fairly clear that stress -- particularly economic stress -- causes divorce. So if stress -- particularly economic stress -- tends to increase the number of baby girls, that explains why couples who have baby girls more frequently get divorced. It's not because of the baby girl; rather, it's from what helped to cause the girl in the first place. And no, I don't mean the sex part. I mean the stress.

If Shaun keeps up this kind of clear thinking, he's bound to become a Republican. Shaun made the news in San Diego this summer with a lawsuit to reform the recall ballot (which he won).