The Right Coast

November 03, 2004
This Is It, Isn't It?
By Maimon Schwarzschild

Bush's lead in the Ohio count is just over 145,000, with 99% of the precincts in. It seems that a generous estimate of outstanding Ohio "provisional ballots" is 175,000. Call it 200,000. In Illinois four years ago, only about 20% of the provisional ballots were later upheld as valid. But suppose 80% of the Ohio provisionals are valid. Kerry would then need to win these provisionals by considerably more than an 80% margin to beat his current shortfall. And that is assuming there are more provisionals than anyone now thinks, and that an unrealistic proportion of them, probably a vastly unrealistic proportion of them, are valid.

I don't see how it can be done, however many lawyers there are ready to be launched.

And will Kerry-Edwards really launch the lawyers, given these numbers, when Bush has what appears to be a clear popular vote majority?