The Right Coast

August 15, 2004
Bush Wins with 57.5 Percent
By Mike Rappaport

So says a Yale Economists. Here is an excerpt:

Q: As a professor of economics at Yale, you are known for creating an econometric equation that has predicted presidential elections with relative accuracy.

A: My latest prediction shows that Bush will receive 57.5 percent of the two-party votes.

Q: The polls are suggesting a much closer race.

A: Polls are notoriously flaky this far ahead of the election, and there is a limit to how much you want to trust polls.

Q: Why should we trust your equation, which seems unusually reductive?

A: It has done well historically. The average mistake of the equation is about 2.5 percentage points.
I strongly recommend reading the entire little piece. The questioner almost seems like a parody of a New York Times journalist, but I think she is being genuine.